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Most economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the Federal Reserve to leave short-term interest rates unchanged at its next two policy meetings, and next raise them in June.

About 76% of business and academic economists polled in recent days said the Fed would next raise its benchmark federal-funds rate at its June 14-15 policy meeting, up from 60% in the February survey.

Just 3% of forecasters predicted Fed officials would lift rates at the March 15-16 meeting, down from 9% in the last survey. Asked to gauge the probability of a March rate increase, on average economists said 12%.

"A more stable global and financial environment will allow [the] Fed to raise rates again" said BBVA Group Chief U.S. Economist Nathaniel Karp, who predicted the Fed would move in June.

Some 6% expected the Fed to hold rates steady next week and then lift them at its April 26-27 meeting. An additional 15% said rates would remain unchanged until after June, including 6% who said the Fed would wait until its September meeting to make its next move.

One economist said officials would keep rates steady through 2017, while another predicted the next move would be to lower short-term rates.

J.P. Morgan Senior Economist Robert Mellman was among those predicting the Fed's next rate increase in June, but said, "It is a very close call."

On average, forecasters estimated the probability of a rate increase then at just 56%. And financial markets appear to share their uncertainty, with federal-funds futures earlier this week suggesting a 44% chance of a June rate increase, according to CME Group Inc.

Chad Moutray, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers, said Fed officials "will be looking for broader-based rebounds in economic data after the lull seen in the early weeks of 2016," but guessed the Fed would next move rates up in June.

The Fed in January held its benchmark federal-funds rate in a range of 0.25%-0.50%, after raising it in December from near zero, where it was pinned for seven years.

Forecasters on average saw the benchmark rate reaching 0.92 by the end of 2016, in line with last month's survey. That suggests private economists still expect the Fed to make roughly two quarter-percentage-point rate moves this year.

"Even these slow expectations are likely too optimistic," said Russell Price, senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc., who predicted the federal-funds rate would reach 0.88 by the end of the year and 2.13 by the end of 2017.

Fed policy makers in December penciled in four quarter-percentage-point rate increases in 2016. They release new forecasts after their meeting next week and could adjust them to predict a more gradual rise in rates in the coming years. Most private forecasters predicted three 2016 quarter-point rate increases when they were surveyed in December.

Financial market volatility earlier this year raised concerns about risks to the U.S. economic outlook and damped expectations for Fed rate increases this year. Despite recent signs of steady job gains and solid household spending, slowing global growth and mixed inflation data have some Fed officials wary of raising rates prematurely and knocking the U.S. expansion off course.

"From a risk-management perspective, this argues for patience as the outlook becomes clearer," Fed governor Lael Brainard said in a speech Monday.

The Journal surveyed 64 economists Friday through Tuesday, though not every respondent answered every question.

Write to Kate Davidson at kate.davidson@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 10, 2016 10:55 ET (15:55 GMT)

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