(Updating with latest results, quotes, background and analysis)
SAARBRUECKEN, Germany (AFX) - Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social
Democrats were badly defeated by the main opposition conservatives in today's
regional elections in Germany's western Saarland state.
The Christian Democrats (CDU) are set to return to power in the Saarland
after winning almost 48 pct of the vote, according to ARD and ZDF public TV
projections based on exit polls.
Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD) are likely to scrape in with about 30
pct, the exit polls showed.
The smaller Greens are projected to enter the state parliament with 5.7 pct
and the pro-business Free Democrats have won 5.5 pct.
The far-right NPD has won 4.2 pct and thus failed to clear the five pct
hurdle required to win seats under German election law.
These results would mean the popular CDU Premier Peter Mueller is returned
to office in the Saarland with his absolute majority. Mueller took power five
years ago after a slim victory when the CDU ousted the ruling SPD by taking 45.5
pct against 44.4 pct.
"This is a defeat - and a bitter one," said Heiko Maas, the defeated
candidate from Schroeder's SPD, adding that the party's unpopularity on the
national level had badly harmed his chances.
Saarland's elections came after mass demonstrations over the Schroeder
government's planned cuts to jobless benefits. The move has eroded support for
the SPD among traditional left-wing voters and has fuelled weekly protests which
last Monday drew 70,000 people, mainly in depressed eastern Germany.
The German economy is emerging from three years of stagnation and
unemployment remains stuck at over 10 per cent nationwide and close to 20 pct in
hard hit east.
Schroeder's only comfort is that the Saarland is a tiny state with just
818,000 voters and a troubled legacy of coal and steel tucked along the borders
of France and Luxembourg.
The results continue a worrying trend of SPD being thrashed in regional
votes and are a grim omen for three more key elections to be held this month.
"It can be seen as a national election test," said Karl-Rudolf Korte, an
election analyst interviewed on ARD TV.
In Brandenburg, some polls show the former East German communists - the
Party of Democratic Socialism - have overtaken the SPD to lead with the CDU
trailing in third place.
Meanwhile, in Saxony the ruling CDU may lose its majority but polls give the
SPD scant chances of taking control of the state.
Voters in both Brandenburg and Saxony go to the polls on Sept 19.
The bigger worry are local elections on Sept 26 in Germany's most populous
state, North Rhine-Westphalia. An SPD defeat here could pave the way for the SPD
state government to be tossed out of office in state elections next May 22.
This would be a disaster for Schroeder because it would give the Christian
Democratic alliance a two-thirds majority in the upper house in Berlin -- the
Bundesrat -- where it could block all federal government legislation.
There is speculation a defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia could prompt
Schroeder to resign in advance of Germany's planned next general election in
2006.
But some analysts suggest the Chancellor would stay on to 2006, helped by
differences among the Christian Democratic ruled Laender or federal states and
between the CDU and its arch-conservative Bavarian wing, the Christian Social
Union (CSU).
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