By Christopher Whittall and Jason Douglas
Bumper demand for a multibillion pound sale of U.K. government
debt issued on Tuesday and a sharp rally in sterling appeared to
show that investors are more relaxed about Britain's June vote on
its membership of the European Union.
The GBP4.75 billion ($6.9 billion) debt sale attracted GBP21
billion of orders, according to a notice released on Tuesday by
banks underwriting the deal. The pound, meanwhile, rose around 0.8%
to $1.46 against the dollar in late European trading, reaching its
highest level against the greenback since early February.
The currency rallied as recent opinion polls showed the U.K.
leaning toward a vote to stay in the EU and after President Barack
Obama warned that exiting the bloc would hurt Britain's global
standing, boosting the stay campaign.
Concern that a vote to leave the EU, the so-called Brexit, would
hit the British economy has helped push the pound down around 1%
against the dollar and around 5% against the euro this year.
Still, the exchange rate has been volatile, and analysts say
further market gyrations could come ahead of the June 23 vote.
"As the odds of Brexit have fallen, sterling has outperformed,"
said Mike Riddell, a portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors,
who said the British pound has been the best performing currency in
global markets over the past five days.
"I don't think that the gilt market was ever going to be where
you see any kind of panic," he said.
Trading in government debt and the country's main equity market
has been mainly unaffected by speculation over Brexit.
In Tuesday's sale, the government's financing arm, the U.K. Debt
Management Office, doubled the size of an existing GBP4.75 billion
bond issue that pays an interest rate of 2.5% and matures in 2065.
The bonds were priced at a yield of 2.29%, according to the DMO.
That was at the lower end of a range that bankers said the
government would pay, and another sign of the deal's
popularity.
Bond investors have been divided on what they believe will be
the impact of the vote's outcome on gilts. Foreign investors sold
gilts at the start of the year, but support has been strong from
domestic investors. Domestic investors bought around 92% of
Tuesday's debt sale, according to the DMO.
This year, U.K government bonds have moved alongside a global
rally in sovereign debt as investors look for safety amid
uncertainty over the global outlook. Rising prices have pushed the
yield on 10-year gilts around 0.3 percentage points lower to 1.66%
this year.
Tuesday's bond sale may also have benefited from bond investors'
hunt for government debt that offers a positive yield. That is
particularly true for U.K. pension funds, which need to hedge
long-dated liabilities. Almost a third of investment-grade
sovereign debt is now trading at a negative yield, according to
Citigroup Inc.
Still, 10-year yields have ticked up from a recent low of 1.32%
on April 7 as investors' concerns over the global economy ease. On
Tuesday, the yield on the 10-year gilt rose 0.06 percentage point
to 1.66%.
While investors are split on how gilts will react to a potential
Brexit, the effects on the pound have been clearer cut.
Sterling hit a seven-year low against the dollar shortly after
the date of the EU vote was announced in February.
"On the currency side it is pretty straightforward: if there is
[going to be] a Brexit, sterling should go on [falling]," said
Tanguy Le Saout, head of European fixed income at Pioneer
Investments. "If it has a lower probability, sterling should come
back some."
Investors expect trading in the pound will stay volatile ahead
of the vote if the polls narrow. Despite Tuesday's gains,
short-dated currency options to protect against a sharp move in the
pound are at their most expensive since 2010.
Proponents of the U.K. staying in the EU say an exit would badly
damage the U.K.'s economy by hitting its trading relationships with
the rest of the world and making Britain a less attractive place
for foreigners to invest in. Those calling for a Brexit, say that
the U.K. economy will thrive freed of EU regulation, and that new
trade agreements will be forged.
The gilt sale comes ahead of a report due Wednesday that is
expected to show the U.K. economy lost momentum in the first
quarter after growing in 2015 at the second-fastest pace among the
Group of Seven leading economies after the U.S. A renewed
manufacturing slump as well as uncertainty over the outcome of
June's referendum are both weighing on growth, economists say.
Officials at the Bank of England, led by Gov. Mark Carney, have
warned that the economy could slow further in the months ahead as
doubts about Britain's future in Europe intensify. The BOE's
rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee in April highlighted a range
of potential vulnerabilities to referendum jitters, including
hiring, business investment, real-estate transactions and consumer
spending.
Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC PLC and J.P. Morgan
Chase& Co. underwrote the bond deal.
Write to Christopher Whittall at christopher.whittall@wsj.com
and Jason Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 26, 2016 13:28 ET (17:28 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.