U.K. GDP Growth Crimped by Trade
November 27 2015 - 6:30AM
Dow Jones News
LONDON—Feeble trade dragged down U.K. economic growth in the
third quarter, government statisticians confirmed Friday, as signs
of a global slackening suggest the Bank of England will be in no
hurry to raise interest rates.
The British economy expanded 0.5% between July and September,
the Office for National Statistics said, which is unrevised from
last month's estimate and slower than 0.7% quarterly growth in the
second quarter. The annualized rate of growth was actually cut to
1.9% from 2%, on the back of industrial production being weaker
than previously thought.
This is in contrast to the U.S., which had its headline growth
numbers increased Tuesday, but the U.K. remains one of
fastest-growing economies among Group of Seven advanced
nations.
Nevertheless, this week's data point to both Britain and the
U.S. feeling the strain of global headwinds, as slower activity in
China depresses demand for many internationally-traded goods. While
the U.K. only sells about 4% of its exports to China, economists
say it is likely to be indirectly affected by its main trading
partners taking the hit.
Trade had the largest negative contribution to U.K. economic
growth in the second quarter since records began in 1997, the ONS
said Friday, as imports rose at a powerful rate while exports
remained generally subdued. Business surveys suggest manufacturers
are the ones struggling the most, as a strong pound makes their
products more expensive abroad.
At the Bank of England, policy makers now acknowledge they are
taking emerging market woes into account when deciding the best
time to start nudging up interest rates. BOE Gov. Mark Carney said
this week that subdued prices provide the U.K. central bank with
more space to leave borrowing costs unchanged for longer, as
inflation is expected to remain at near zero in the following
months—far below the Bank of England's 2% target.
Investors forecast the BOE will leave rates pegged at their
current record-low 0.5% at least until the end of 2016, financial
market derivatives show. By contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is
expected by many analysts to use its December meeting of
rate-setters to tighten monetary policy for the first time in
nearly 10 years.
Still, the British economy remains generally healthy, on the
back of strong consumer spending and an acceleration in business
investment and stock building by companies, official data
showed.
In a batch of fresh forecasts unveiled Thursday, the Office for
Budget Responsibility, the U.K.'s independent fiscal watchdog,
estimated the economy would grow 2.4% both in 2015 as a whole and
2016, suggesting Britain will keep most of its economic momentum
even if developing markets struggle. This led Treasury chief George
Osborne to announce that the government's plans to bring down the
budget deficit—a gap he has pledged to bring down to zero by
2020—will need less severe cuts to public spending than previously
thought, which should also provide a bump to the economy.
Write to Jon Sindreu at jon.sindreu@wsj.com and Jason Douglas at
jason.douglas@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 27, 2015 06:15 ET (11:15 GMT)
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