LONDON—Feeble trade dragged down U.K. economic growth in the third quarter, government statisticians confirmed Friday, as signs of a global slackening suggest the Bank of England will be in no hurry to raise interest rates.

The British economy expanded 0.5% between July and September, the Office for National Statistics said, which is unrevised from last month's estimate and slower than 0.7% quarterly growth in the second quarter. The annualized rate of growth was actually cut to 1.9% from 2%, on the back of industrial production being weaker than previously thought.

This is in contrast to the U.S., which had its headline growth numbers increased Tuesday, but the U.K. remains one of fastest-growing economies among Group of Seven advanced nations.

Nevertheless, this week's data point to both Britain and the U.S. feeling the strain of global headwinds, as slower activity in China depresses demand for many internationally-traded goods. While the U.K. only sells about 4% of its exports to China, economists say it is likely to be indirectly affected by its main trading partners taking the hit.

Trade had the largest negative contribution to U.K. economic growth in the second quarter since records began in 1997, the ONS said Friday, as imports rose at a powerful rate while exports remained generally subdued. Business surveys suggest manufacturers are the ones struggling the most, as a strong pound makes their products more expensive abroad.

At the Bank of England, policy makers now acknowledge they are taking emerging market woes into account when deciding the best time to start nudging up interest rates. BOE Gov. Mark Carney said this week that subdued prices provide the U.K. central bank with more space to leave borrowing costs unchanged for longer, as inflation is expected to remain at near zero in the following months—far below the Bank of England's 2% target.

Investors forecast the BOE will leave rates pegged at their current record-low 0.5% at least until the end of 2016, financial market derivatives show. By contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected by many analysts to use its December meeting of rate-setters to tighten monetary policy for the first time in nearly 10 years.

Still, the British economy remains generally healthy, on the back of strong consumer spending and an acceleration in business investment and stock building by companies, official data showed.

In a batch of fresh forecasts unveiled Thursday, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the U.K.'s independent fiscal watchdog, estimated the economy would grow 2.4% both in 2015 as a whole and 2016, suggesting Britain will keep most of its economic momentum even if developing markets struggle. This led Treasury chief George Osborne to announce that the government's plans to bring down the budget deficit—a gap he has pledged to bring down to zero by 2020—will need less severe cuts to public spending than previously thought, which should also provide a bump to the economy.

Write to Jon Sindreu at jon.sindreu@wsj.com and Jason Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.com

 

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 27, 2015 06:15 ET (11:15 GMT)

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