U.K. Financial Firms Feel Emerging Market Pain
August 24 2015 - 1:41PM
Dow Jones News
By Max Colchester And Juliet Samuel
LONDON--U.K. banks and insurers that rode a wave of growth in
emerging markets in recent years now find themselves facing a sharp
downturn in those key markets.
Financial firms including Standard Chartered PLC, Prudential
PLC, Aviva PLC and HSBC Holdings PLC have long touted their
exposure to fast growing Asian markets. But the region's fortunes
are quickly turning sour, driven by concerns about weakness in
China.
Investors are selling off emerging market assets and pulling
money out of China on worries about the country's slowing growth
and the sudden devaluation of its currency. "The narrative around
weaker growth in China and emerging markets more broadly has
spilled over into commodity and currency markets," said David
Stubbs, a market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The
fears about the impact of lower demand for raw materials from China
have pushed oil prices to six-year lows.
For banks with big emerging markets exposures, investors fret a
stuttering Asian economy will dial up the loan losses. Shares in
Standard Chartered and HSBC are down 40% and 24% over the last
year, respectively. A "real slowdown" in Asian markets would
"crystallize" loan losses at banks with big operations in the
region, said Nick Anderson, a banking analyst at Berenberg. "In
terms of provisioning, the pain is still to come."
Some analysts said the turmoil in Asia could add to pressure on
Standard Chartered to issue new capital. The bank, which makes
about a third of its operating profits in Greater China, is
considering raising additional equity. New Chief Executive Bill
Winters said during a recent conference for analysts that no
decision had been made yet on whether to do so.
"It seems logical that the group nonperforming loans will
continue to increase this year," said Joe Dickerson, an analyst at
Jefferies. But the bank could avoid issuing equity by cutting its
dividend and selling off assets, he added. In the first half of the
year, impairments jumped 15% to $1.7 billion on the back of
weakness in commodities markets. The bank has cut its commodities
exposure by 11% since the start of the year in an effort to stem
losses.
Both Standard Chartered and HSBC are also facing an imminent
Bank of England "stress test" that focuses in part on whether
lenders can ride out an emerging markets crash. The results of the
test, which is already under way and based on last year's
financials, will be presented on Dec 1.
Standard Chartered and HSBC declined to comment.
Executives at banks and insurers are putting on a brave face,
pointing to the fast growing nature of emerging market economies,
fueled by increased urbanization and a fast growing middle-class.
"Whilst we probably haven't seen fully the impact in terms of bad
debts and so on that come about from the sell off in the stock
market...We're still very much looking for 7%, 7.1% GDP growth for
this year for China," said HSBC Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver
during a call with analysts earlier this month. In June HSBC
executives unveiled a plan to divert extra resources into
bolstering its Asian franchise, which in the first half of the year
generated more than two thirds of its profit before tax.
Shares in London-based insurer Prudential PLC have also
suffered. The stock is down 12% since the start of July. Analysts
are predicting an inevitable slowdown in sales from its Hong Kong
and Chinese customers. Prudential has warned it faces difficulties
in its biggest Asian market, Indonesia, an economy sensitive to
falling commodity prices and a weakening currency. Six analysts
have downgraded 2015 growth forecasts for the company in the last
two months, according to FactSet.
A spokesman for the company said that its growth isn't
correlated with Asian equity markets and that there are still
increasing numbers of affluent people in China who need
insurance.
Write to Max Colchester at max.colchester@wsj.com and Juliet
Samuel at juliet.samuel@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 24, 2015 13:26 ET (17:26 GMT)
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