NEW YORK, Feb. 8, 2016 /PRNewswire/ --
Introduction
What does the future of the communications market look like? More
to the point, how can communication service providers (CSPs) assess
the demand for their services, one, two or even five years in the
future? The usual way in which predictions of this sort are done is
to look at trends based on previous consumer buying behavior, and
then apply some judicious assumptions on how evolving market
dynamics will impact those trends in the future. This is the way
that Stratecast makes market predictions for consumer communication
services demand. In the short term this approach works very well,
and Stratecast predictions have run within % of the actual market
performance. However, what if one wants to look farther into the
future than just the next three to five years?2 Predictions based
on survey data are just too unstable to trust much more than five
years out. There is a rapidly increasing uncertainty level that, at
five years out, can run as high as plus or minus % of the predicted
demand.
Clearly, beyond this point, predictions, based on current market
metrics or survey data, are more of an educated guess. Yet, there
is a novel way of predicting, if not consumers' preferences, at
least consumers' proclivity to buy communication services
generally. This way is through population age distribution
analysis. When a population is viewed by its age distribution,
predictions of future buying behavior can be made with some
confidence.
Applied at a national or strategic level, such an approach provides
reliable insights into current global political dynamics. Applied
at the macro-economic level, and to the consumer communication
services market specifically, this approach provides a road map for
service provider planning. This SPIE provides an introduction to
age distribution analysis; and then applies this approach to
predicting the evolution of the consumer communication services
market—that is, voice, video, Internet access and wireless.
Although the focus of this paper is communication services, the
research approach is equally applicable to a wide range of market
analyses.
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