The imminent territorial destruction of the Islamic State will
not end the group’s pervasive ongoing threat, both locally and
internationally, according to a report released today from Jane’s
by IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO), a world leader in critical
information, analytics and solutions.
This press release features multimedia. View
the full release here:
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20171117005243/en/
Islamic State Attacks and Fatalities -
October 2016 - September 2017 (Source: Jane's Terrorism and
Insurgency Centre)
With the recent losses of Deir al-Zour and al-Bukamal in Syria
and al-Qaim in Iraq, alongside the final offensive targeting Rawa,
the Islamic State will likely cease to be a territorial entity in
Iraq and Syria by the end of this month.
“Despite the hope - or perhaps misguided expectation -
otherwise, the defeat of the Islamic State as a territorial entity
will not represent its defeat as a non-state armed group, nor put a
halt to its armed campaign,” said Matt Henman, head of Jane’s
Terrorism and Insurgency Centre (JTIC). “Instead, the group will
almost certainly transition from a pseudo state back to an
underground armed insurgency, remaining capable of conducting
asymmetric attacks against security forces in Iraq and Syria and
continuing to undermine security and central governance.”
Indeed, this process has been underway for the past 12 months at
least, as underlined by data recorded by JTIC. Between October 2016
and September 2017, the Islamic State conducted 5,349 attacks
worldwide, resulting in a total of 8,139 non-militant fatalities.
This represented an interesting change from the preceding 12
months, comprising a 38.3 percent increase in attacks but a 21.8
percent decrease in non-militant fatalities. The fact that the
Islamic State has been conducting more attacks but causing fewer
fatalities is indicative of the group’s transition to asymmetric
insurgent operations in areas of Iraq and Syria that have been
recaptured from it by state or non-state adversaries. These
operational methods mirror the tactics employed by the group’s
affiliates in other parts of the world as the Islamic State strives
to build the conditions for establishing territorial control.
A shadow state
The Islamic State will seek to maintain some semblance of its
former governance structure as a shadow state, imposing summary
justice through abductions and executions, and portraying itself as
exercising power in areas under government control.
“The continuation of a shadow state campaign is paramount for
the Islamic State’s future ambitions, which remain tied to the
establishment of a lasting and expanding territorial caliphate,”
Henman said. “The group has portrayed its losses of territory as
part of a drawn-out long-term battle against crusading, apostate
forces, and it will aim to retain the capabilities to reorganize a
wider campaign in the future to regain the territories that it has
lost as well as expand its borders further.”
Conflict enters a new stage
While the imminent territorial destruction of the Islamic State
is an important stage in the ongoing fight against the group, it
will mark a new phase of the conflict rather than its terminus, the
report says.
“The denial of a territorial base for the group from which it
can impose its fundamentalist interpretation of Islam on a captive
population, stage further territorial expansions, and inspire,
facilitate, and conduct operations worldwide has justifiably been
the pre-eminent focus of the various ongoing campaigns against the
Islamic State. But it is of vital importance that the momentum
achieved is not squandered by mistakenly assuming that the threat
posed by the group has ended,” Henman said.
Focus must turn to counter-insurgency efforts to further degrade
the capabilities of the Islamic State while concurrently addressing
the political and socio-economic conditions in which the group has
thrived and contrived to generate a degree of popular support, at
least initially.
New conflicts likely to emerge
“There is a very real danger that the territorial defeat of the
Islamic State will precipitate the emergence of new conflicts and
crises among its multiple adversaries, both in Iraq and Syria,
which will further generate insecurity and instability and thereby
recreate conditions that the group will exploit and exacerbate to
facilitate a territorial re-emergence,” Henman said.
There has already been a key example of this in Iraq, where the
seizure of the city of Kirkuk from Kurdish forces by the security
forces was undertaken while the Islamic State still retained
critical territory in Anbar province on the border with Syria.
Similarly, in Syria the future status of the Islamic State’s former
capital of Raqqa encapsulates the potential for violence between
pro-government forces and Kurdish forces in the vacuum left by the
Islamic State’s defeat.
“Without a concentrated and comprehensive ongoing approach to
tackling the Islamic State, both directly in its primary
operational areas and its indirect influence in the West, there is
every chance that the territorial campaigns against the group
currently being concluded will have to be refought in the future,”
Henman said.
About IHS Markit
(www.ihsmarkit.com)
IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) is a world leader in critical
information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and
markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers
next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers
in business, finance and government, improving their operational
efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed,
confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 key business
and government customers, including 85 percent of the Fortune
Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions.
Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable,
profitable growth.
IHS Markit is a registered trademark of IHS Markit Ltd and/or
its affiliates. All other company and product names may be
trademarks of their respective owners © 2017 IHS Markit Ltd. All
rights reserved.
About Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency
Centre (JTIC)
Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre (JTIC) by IHS Markit uses
open source data to build its global database of both attacks by
non-state armed groups, in addition to counter-terrorism operations
and key statements by state and non-state actors. The database
enables users to search by location, target, group (active and
dormant), tactics and casualty numbers in order to quickly obtain
actionable intelligence and/or data. The database includes over
250,000 events since 2009 and tracks over 1,000 separate non-state
armed groups worldwide.
Get in touch here to learn more about JTIC and other
solutions from Jane’s.
View source
version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20171117005243/en/
IHS MarkitJoanna Vickers, +44 207 260
2234joanna.vickers@ihsmarkit.comorPress Team+1
303-305-8021press@ihs.comFollow @IHS_News
IHS Markit Ltd. (NASDAQ:INFO)
Historical Stock Chart
From Mar 2024 to Apr 2024
IHS Markit Ltd. (NASDAQ:INFO)
Historical Stock Chart
From Apr 2023 to Apr 2024