By Riva Gold
Global stocks held on to recent gains Thursday, supported by a
firmer trend on Wall Street and hopes for more stimulus from the
European Central Bank.
The Stoxx Europe 600 edged up 0.3% after climbing for three
days, while Germany's DAX rose 0.4% after closing at its highest
level this year.
Futures suggested U.S. stocks would add to Wednesday's gains,
after major bourses closed at fresh records in their steepest best
day since the presidential election.
Investors' focus on Thursday turned to the European Central
Bank, which is widely expected to extend its bond-buying program
for six months at the conclusion of its meeting later in the day.
The bank is running out of bonds to buy, but many expect it to
continue at its current pace of EUR80 billion ($85.8 billion) a
month with a few tweaks to the program.
"This one is going to be tricky," said Gilles Pradère, a
portfolio manager at RAM Active Investments. "I have no strong
conviction about what they will do technically, but I think the
message will be dovish."
Investors sold German bunds and bought the euro in morning
trading, but moves were largely muted. The yield on the 10-year
German government bond edged up to 0.370% from 0.344% on
Wednesday.
Recent comments from ECB officials have emphasized the
importance of preserving stimulus, a message that bond investors
appear to have taken to heart. Riskier European debt and Italian
debt have rallied this week despite the concerns emanating from the
Italian referendum, a move some attribute to expectations for an
extension of quantitative easing.
"It's quite dangerous to rock the boat this month, given what's
happened in Italy and what's going on with the banks," said Dominic
White, chief economist at Absolute Strategy Research.
Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi formally resigned on
Wednesday, paving the way for a rapid change of government. Italian
bank shares continued to climb Thursday but remain down over 40% so
far this year.
While consensus has emerged that the ECB is unlikely to do much
more than announce a continuation of its existing program later
Thursday, some investors worry that it could signal a "tapering" of
its QE program soon, lifting real yields ahead of key elections
across the eurozone in 2017.
"This is their last hurrah," said Jordan Rochester, strategist
at Nomura. Even as inflation remains shy of the ECB's target,
eurozone economic data have been better than forecast recently, and
the euro has weakened against a rising dollar, alleviating some of
the pressure for further stimulus measures. The euro is down about
0.9% against the dollar since the bank's last meeting.
Still, the euro was last up 0.2% against the dollar at $1.0788
around a three-week high, after rising 1.2% so far this week, amid
concerns Mr. Draghi could hint in this direction.
"December of last year still haunts us all, when the ECB cut
rates and eased policy and the euro still went higher," Mr.
Rochester said. He expects the euro reaction to be more muted this
time, with positioning less extreme ahead of the meeting and much
less at stake in terms of policy.
The moves also come amid a global selloff in long-dated
government bonds on expectations that U.S. policy will be
reflationary. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was last
at 2.376% from 2.347% on Wednesday.
Investors have bet that the Trump administration will bring
about tax cuts, deregulation and fiscal stimulus, supporting growth
and inflation in the world's largest economy and buoying U.S.
stocks.
Earlier, markets in Asia closed higher after a rally on Wall
Street sent both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average
to record highs.
"The promise of fiscal policy is certainly encouraging. but we
have to discern the difference between posturing and policy from
our president-elect," said Eric Wiegand, portfolio manager at U.S.
Bank Wealth Management. "Tax policy and trade policy are very big
issues for us, and we're anxious to get a sense of actual
policy."
Health care was the only S&P 500 sector to decline
Wednesday, while Pfizer Inc., Johnson & Johnson and Merck &
Co. were the only three stocks in the Dow to lose ground, following
comments on drug pricing from President-elect Donald Trump.
Those moves were echoed in Europe on Thursday, with the health
care sector down 0.4% even as wider markets advanced.
Earlier, Japan's Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.5% on Thursday,
while Australian stocks added 1.2%.
Markets in Hong Kong added 0.3% while Shanghai stocks fell 0.2%
with sentiment subdued in Chinese markets by authorities' increased
scrutiny of aggressive stock purchases by some insurance
companies.
Tom Fairless and Kenan Machado contributed to this article.
Write to Riva Gold at riva.gold@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 08, 2016 07:35 ET (12:35 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.