MOSCOW--The Russian ruble rose beyond the psychologically
important mark of 60 per dollar on Friday, for the first time since
early 2015, buoyed by investors' interest in buying into Russian
assets ahead of a possible rate cut by the central bank.
After hitting all-time lows of around 80 to the dollar in
December, the ruble has been gradually recovering since, thanks to
the stabilization of the oil market.
The ruble firmed to 59.28 against the dollar on the Moscow
exchange, a level last seen on Jan. 5. By 1535 GMT the Russian
currency had given up some gains, sliding to 60.13, but still
having gained 1.1% on the day.
Dmitry Tulin, who joined the central bank's board as first
deputy chairman in January, taking over as monetary policy chief,
supported the ruble by hinting at the normalization of the central
bank's hitherto hawkish monetary policy. In his first public
interview on Thursday, Mr. Tulin said that the bank's key rate
should not necessarily be above inflation.
Mr. Tulin's interview raised the probability that the central
bank will cut rates, which gave impetus to buying into Russian
assets before yields go lower following the rate cut, said Mikhail
Rumyantsev, head of trading at Rosbank, a Russian arm of Société
Générale.
The situation in Ukraine has also served to strengthen the
ruble, as the degree of violence in the eastern part of Russia's
neighbor has gradually ebbed.
"A cease-fire in Ukraine is somehow in place. The market has
been discounting negative news since the Minsk agreements," Mr.
Rumyantsev said, referring to a summit in Belarus capital on Feb.
11-12, where the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany
agreed to a package of measures aimed at stopping the conflict in
Ukraine.
A trader at a major Russian bank in Moscow noted that the ruble
was recovering on a very thin market, pricing in recent political
developments and shrugging off a U.S. decision to prolong sanctions
against Russia.
The market is waiting for the central bank rate decision on
March 13 and month-end tax payments, which usually prompt exporters
to convert foreign currency to meet local liabilities. The latter
may help the ruble to firm to between 52 and 57 to the dollar in
the medium term, Mr. Rumyantsev said.
Write to Andrey Ostroukh at andrey.ostroukh@wsj.com
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