Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c90712)
has announced the addition of Chile Commercial Banking Report Q1 2008 to
their offering.
The Chile Commercial Banking Report provides independent forecasts and
competitive intelligence on Chile's commercial banking industry.
From Q108 we will be calculating the Commercial Banking Business
Environment Rating (CBBER) for each of the countries surveyed by BMI.
This will permit a more systematic and comprehensive comparison of the
conditions within the banking industries of the various countries than
was possible in the past. For each country, it will also facilitate a
comparison of the conditions within the banking sector and conditions
prevailing in other sectors.
Chile’s overall CBBER is 62.4. The equivalent
figures for the US and the eurozone are 84.8 and 81.4, respectively.
Chile’s CBBER comes a close second to Mexico’s
(62.0), and is only exceeded by that of Brazil (66.7). It is also higher
than that of any of the many countries in Central and Eastern Europe
that are surveyed by BMI.
The Chilean government’s rigid commitment to
fiscal discipline continues to result in strong fiscal surpluses, a
factor that played a part in the recent credit rating upgrade by
Standard and Poor’s from A to A+. Despite a
fall in President Michelle Bachelet’s
popularity and intense pressure to increase social spending, the Q307
fiscal figures show that total expenditure actually fell on
quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and year-on-year (y-o-y) bases, by 13.4% and
3.2%, respectively, to CLP3.29trn. Total income, on the other hand, rose
by 11.9% y-o-y to CLP5.83trn, although this was down by 6.1% q-o-q.
The quarterly decline in revenues was, to a large extent, the result of
a reduction in income tax revenues, which fell to CLP4.16trn from
CLP4.40trn in Q207, due to a moderation of economic growth, and a
sizable contraction in copper-related revenues. This component fell from
CLP1.15trn in Q207 to CLP0.78trn in Q307, and our cautious outlook for
copper prices suggests there may be further downside in this category.
We expect to see a reduction in the fiscal surplus in 2008, from an
estimated 8.6% of GDP in 2007 to 4.1% of GDP. This will result from a
relaxation of the structural, or cyclically adjusted, surplus rule from
1.0% to 0.5% of GDP, lower rents from the mining sector, and an increase
in spending on social projects such as health and education. One risk to
this scenario, however, is inflation. Consumer prices are rising at
their fastest rate in over a decade, coming in at 7.5% y-o-y in November
2007, and further price pressures may limit the government’s
willingness to implement expansionary fiscal policies.
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c90712.
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