More attacks took place in October 2016 than any month this
year; Three key terrorism trends highlighted at IHS Jane’s
Terrorism and Insurgency Centre briefing
Non-state armed groups carried out more attacks in October 2016
than any other month in the past 12 months, according to new data
released today by IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO), a world leader in
critical information, analytics and solutions.
The data was collected from open sources by IHS Jane’s Terrorism
and Insurgency Centre (JTIC). Information from social media, which
could not be verified through conventional and trusted news sources
is not included in the data.
Globally, 2,662 attacks were carried out in October 2016 -- an
average of 86 attacks per day. This represents a 59 percent rise in
the daily average number of attacks compared with September 2016,
which saw fewer than 1,000 attacks for the month. In the preceding
12 months, JTIC recorded an average of 59 attacks per-day.
“In October, JTIC recorded over 1,600 attacks in the Middle East
and North Africa alone,” said Matthew Henman, head of JTIC. “Syria
was the primary driver of this increase, accounting for over 40
percent of all attacks worldwide. This spike reflects the deepening
intensity of the battle for control of Aleppo, with fresh
offensives launched by opposition forces.
Key terrorism trends
At a recent JTIC briefing, the team highlighted three main
terrorism trends to watch out for in 2017.
More headlines expected for Jabhat Fath al-Sham (formerly Jabhat
al-Nusra)
“As the Islamic State continues to lose territory and as the
international coalition continues targeted airstrikes, we are
likely to see another name in the headlines more often -- Jabhat
Fath al-Sham,” Henman said. “It is becoming more apparent that a
potentially longer-term and equally serious threat is posed by
Jabhat Fath ash-Sham as a consequence of its burgeoning operational
capabilities, its deep integration within the wider opposition, and
its concurrent radicalising influence. Effectively isolating and
countering that threat is likely to prove a far tougher challenge
for the international community in the long term.”
Looking ahead to the coming months and years, the group is
likely to focus on capturing and holding territory in the northwest
of the country, particularly the city of Aleppo and surrounding
areas of the governorate, in addition to developing its presence
and territorial control in the west and south of the country, the
report said.
Declaration of an Islamic State wilaya in Southeast Asia
“There is an increased likelihood that the Islamic State will
declare an official wilaya, or province, in Southeast Asia in
2017,” said Otso Iho, senior analyst at JTIC. “In the past year, we
have seen a substantial shift in the Islamic State’s use of
resources to reach and influence audiences in the region and we
have seen a similar shift among Philippine militant groups’
propaganda alignment.”
The first pledges to the Islamic State came in 2014 amid the
group’s successes in Iraq and Syria, but during 2014, JTIC did not
record any official claims of attacks by the Islamic State in the
region and there were no changes to the modus operandi among local
militant groups.
“In the beginning of 2016 we started to see videos of training
camps for ‘soldiers of the caliphate’ in the Philippines, pledges
of allegiances by more groups, and a subsequent acceptance of these
pledges by the Islamic State leadership -- marking a major change,”
Iho said.
The Islamic State then consistently ramped up its propaganda
focus on the region, while militant groups have also stepped up
their levels of violence and alignment with the group, the JTIC
briefing said.
“What has not changed, however, are militant groups’
capabilities in the region,” Iho said. “There is little evidence to
suggest that this increasing alignment has led to substantial
operational or financial support for attacks.”
Nonetheless, the threat posed by Islamist militancy in Southeast
Asia will remain primarily linked to lone actors and small groups,
who are encouraged by the Islamic State’s propaganda and who, in
some cases, have had direct contact with Islamic State militants in
Iraq and Syria. In addition to regular attacks by Islamic
State-aligned militant groups in the southern Philippines, since
the start of 2016 there have been at least four attacks tied to the
Islamic State in Southeast Asia, three conducted in Indonesia and
one in Malaysia.
Evolution of Islamic State attacks in the West
“Events across 2016 have provided new insights into the
operational methods of the Islamic State in terms of conducting
operations in the West,” Henman said. “The November 2015 attacks in
Paris and the March 2016 attacks in Brussels highlighted the
group’s use of returnee foreign fighters to launch attacks directed
by its central leadership. The other lone actor attacks claimed by
Islamic State supporters underlined the group’s ability to inspire
individuals who had not travelled to Iraq and Syria who had no
direct contact with the group.”
A series of attacks and foiled attacks in France and Germany
across mid-2016, though, underlined a third channel for Islamic
State attacks in the West, the briefing said. Western members of
the group in Iraq or Syria would communicate with supporters back
in their home countries in order to directly encourage, support,
and direct attacks therein. One of the foremost examples is French
national Rachid Kassim, who French officials have linked to several
attacks and foiled plots in the country.
About IHS JTIC
The IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre uses open source
data to build its global database of terrorist and insurgent
events. The database enables users to search by location, target,
group (active and dormant), tactics and casualty numbers in order
to quickly obtain actionable intelligence and/or data. The database
includes over 200,000 events since 2009 and over 250 group
profiles. Information from social media that could not be verified
through conventional and trusted news sources is not included in
the data.
About IHS Markit
(www.ihsmarkit.com)
IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) is a world leader in critical
information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and
markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers
next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers
in business, finance and government, improving their operational
efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed,
confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 key business
and government customers, including 85 percent of the Fortune
Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions.
Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable,
profitable growth.
IHS Markit is a registered trademark of IHS Markit Ltd. All
other company and product names may be trademarks of their
respective owners © 2016 IHS Markit Ltd. All rights reserved.
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IHS MarkitAmanda Russo, +44 208 276
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