TIDMBKIR
RNS Number : 2334Z
Bank of Ireland(Governor&Co)
17 September 2009
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Pre-close trading statement together with comment on National Asset Management
Agency (NAMA) and Government Guarantee announcement
17 September 2009
Background
Bank of Ireland is issuing the following statement as its pre-close trading
statement for the six months ending 30 September 2009, ahead of its close
period, and incorporating the Bank's comment on the announcement by the Minister
for Finance on 16 September 2009 on the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA)
and the Government Guarantee. Unless otherwise stated, throughout the statement
comparative performance is measured against the first six months of our previous
financial year (i.e. six months ending 30 September 2009 versus six months ended
30 September 2008).
Richie Boucher (Group Chief Executive and John O'Donovan (Group Chief Financial
Officer) will host a conference call at 2.00pm BST today, 17 September 2009.
Conference call details are outlined below.
Trading update
Trading conditions in the first six months of our financial year have
been difficult. The level of economic activity across our main markets has
contracted and the credit environment has deteriorated. Trading conditions in
Ireland remain particularly challenging with continuing low levels of activity.
2009 consensus forecasts for GDP growth and unemployment in Ireland disimproved
over the period. In recent months funding conditions across international money
markets have improved from the more stressed levels experienced earlier in the
reporting period.
Against this backdrop we expect underlying* operating profit (pre-impairment) to
be lower in the six months to 30 September 2009 than in the comparable prior
period to 30 September 2008. Total income is expected to be 'mid teens'
percentage points lower and costs 'high single digit' percentage points lower.
The credit environment has continued to deteriorate and we expect this to result
in an impairment charge on loans and advances to customers of approximately EUR1.6
to EUR1.8 billion in the six months to 30 September 2009.
Underlying operating profit (pre-impairment)
Total income is expected to be 'mid teens' percentage points lower in the six
months to 30 September 2009 compared to the six months to 30 September 2008
primarily as a result of reduced deposit margins, higher funding costs, the cost
of the Government Guarantee and reduced new business activity in both lending
and the sale of investment and savings products. In addition, as a result of the
narrowing of the Group's credit spread, total income was adversely affected by
the reversal in the six months to 30 September 2009 of some of the gains
recorded in prior reporting periods on the fair value of our own debt. This
negative income performance is expected to be offset somewhat by the impact of a
positive movement in the investment variance in the Life company which was a
charge of EUR63 million in the six months to 30 September 2008 and is expected to
be a gain in the six months to 30 September 2009.
* Note: Underlying excludes the impact of non-core items: goodwill impairment;
gross-up for policy holder tax in the Life Company; investment return on
treasury stock held for policyholders in Bank of Ireland Life; hedge
ineffectiveness on transition to IFRS; costs associated with restructuring
programmes; gain / (loss) on disposal of business activities; gain arising on
the buy-back of tier 1 debt securities. In the 6 months to 30 September 2008 the
total effect of non-core items was a gain of EUR56 million.
The combination of low interest rates, intense competition for deposits, and
higher funding costs are negatively impacting on the Group's net interest
margin. These factors are partially offset by improved lending margins, and we
expect the net interest margin at 30 September 2009 to be 'low double digit'
basis points lower than the net interest margin of 1.71% for the comparable
prior period to 30 September 2008.
Cost discipline remains strong across the Group and we expect costs in the six
months to 30 September 2009 to be 'high single digit' percentage points lower
than in the prior comparable period. A reduction in staff costs through lower
staff numbers is the main driver of this expected outcome. Comparative cost
performance has also been positively impacted by discretionary variable
compensation which was accrued for in the first half of the prior year and
unwound in the second half of that year. Costs relating to the potential
implementation of NAMA are also an increasing feature.
Asset quality
The general economic environment has deteriorated with continuing low levels of
activity in the commercial property markets and in the Irish mortgage market
which are impacting our credit quality. This is reflected in our expectation of
an impairment charge on loans and advances to customers of circa EUR1.6 to EUR1.8
billion in the six months to 30 September 2009 compared to the impairment charge
of EUR267 million for the six months to 30 September 2008. The most significant
deterioration in asset quality arises in our property and construction portfolio
(particularly landbank / development) and represents circa 2/3rds of the
increased charge for the period. Deeper recessionary conditions have also had
some impact on our SME / Corporate books in Ireland.
Looking towards 31 March 2011 (the end of the current three-year forecast
horizon), given the continued poor outlook for Irish property and mortgage
markets in particular, we anticipate that the downside risk advised in our
previous guidance of circa EUR6 billion will materialise to the extent of 'mid
teens' percentage points. This estimate includes incurred and estimated future
loan impairment provisions for landbank and development loans. It does not
reflect any impact from the transfer of loans to NAMA. With the main markets in
which we operate experiencing recession, loan impairment is a significant
judgemental matter and difficult to call in these unprecedented circumstances.
Estimates and judgements are continually evaluated and are based on historical
experience and other factors including expectations of future events that are
believed to be reasonable under the circumstances. Actual results may differ
from these estimates due to the inherent uncertainty around future events,
values and timing issues.
We do not expect to incur an impairment charge on our Available For Sale (AFS)
portfolio in the reporting period to 30 September 2009.
Balance sheet
Over the course of the six month period, funding conditions gradually improved
reflecting an upturn in the general funding market backdrop and an increased
appetite for Irish debt. As a result, we have experienced enhanced access and
better pricing at the shorter end of the wholesale money markets. The customer
deposit base has also been stable since March 2009, despite ongoing intense
competition for deposits.
The quantum of loans and advances to customers on a constant currency basis at
the end of September 2009 is expected to be circa 1% lower than 31 March 2009
and 2% lower than 30 September 2008. This partially reflects our earlier
decisions to close for new business our UK intermediary distributed mortgage
business and place certain capital markets loan portfolios into run-down. Demand
for new credit remains muted across all portfolios reflecting the weak economic
conditions. Reduced levels of customer re-financing activity is impacting the
pace of balance sheet de-leveraging, particularly in our UK mortgage book.
Customer deposits on a constant currency basis are expected to be broadly flat
in September 2009 compared to March 2009 and circa 5% lower than in September
2008. We expect our loan to deposit ratio to remain broadly in line with the
161% reported at March 2009.
Access to wholesale funding markets gradually improved over the reporting
period. Since the beginning of the current financial year, we have raised circa
EUR7.5bn in term funding (funding with a maturity of one year or greater at date
of issue). At 30 September 2009 we expect circa 28% of our overall wholesale
funding to have a maturity of greater than one year in line with 31 March 2009.
In September 2009, the Group issued a EUR1.5 billion 5 year covered bond at Euro
mid swaps +190bps. This was the first partially un-guaranteed public issue by an
Irish bank since the inception of the Government Guarantee in September 2008.
At 30 September 2009, the gross quantum of eligible assets in the Group's
contingent liquidity collateral pool is expected to be circa EUR46 billion. The
Group's utilisation of these assets through net drawings from Monetary
Authorities at the end of September 2009 are expected to be below EUR10 billion,
down from EUR17 billion net at 31 March 2009.
Capital
The Group's capital position improved during the reporting period with the
equity tier 1 ratio expected to increase from 6.2% at 31 March 2009 to a range
of circa 6.5% to 6.7% at 30 September 2009. During the six month period to 30
September 2009 the equity tier 1 ratio benefited by EUR1 billion from the buy-back
of approximately EUR1.7 billion nominal of tier 1 debt securities.
Divisional performance
The six months ending 30 September 2009 have been very challenging for Retail
Ireland and operating profit pre-impairment is expected to be significantly
lower in the six months to 30 September 2009 compared to the six months to 30
September 2008. The depressed economic conditions in Ireland are reflected in
weak loan demand and are expected to result in modest growth in the mortgage
book and a reduction in the consumer finance book. Excluding property, SME
lending activity has reflected a reasonable flow of new lending opportunities
offset by scheduled repayments and voluntary redemptions as customers have
sought to reduce leverage. Growth in overall resources is expected and reflects
exceptionally good growth in deposits. This is expected to be partially offset
by a reduction in current account credit balances reflecting the lower levels of
economic activity. Net interest margin has been negatively impacted by a
significant narrowing of liability spreads due to the very low interest rate
environment and intense competition for deposits, and by the increased cost of
wholesale funding. The loan impairment charge will be substantially higher with
increased provisions across all portfolios. Efficiency improvement and cost
reduction have been key priorities for the business and manpower levels and
costs are expected to be lower.
The recent volatility of financial markets, and the effect of the changed
economic climate has had a significant impact on the life and pensions industry
and Bank of Ireland Life's business. Operating profits in the six months to 30
September 2009 are expected to be well behind the comparable prior period due to
a combination of lower new business volumes and lower management fees from
reduced assets under management. The investment variance is strongly positive
reflecting the recovery in world equity markets from their March 2009 lows.
Profit before tax for the Capital Markets Division is expected to be lower
reflecting higher loan impairment charges. Operating profit pre-impairment is
expected to be flat in the six months to 30 September 2009 compared to the prior
period with reduced income levels offset by lower costs. Corporate Banking
operating profit pre-impairment is expected to be marginally higher than the
prior comparable reporting period to 30 September 2008. The loan book is
expected to be marginally down with marginally higher lending margins offset by
lower fee income. Global Markets is delivering a satisfactory performance in the
current environment and we do not expect to incur an AFS impairment charge in
the current reporting period (EUR40 million impairment charge incurred in the
prior reporting period to 30 September 2008).
In UK Financial Services the loan book at 30 September 2009 is expected to be
marginally lower than 31 March 2009. Deposits are also expected to decline
somewhat with deposits in Post Office Financial Services (POFS) remaining
broadly flat and some outflows occurring in the business banking segment in
Great Britain. Operating profit pre impairment for the six months to 30
September 2009 is expected to be in line with the performance in the first half
of the last financial year driven by strong lending margin management and tight
control of costs mitigating the impact of higher funding costs and lower deposit
margins. We expect a material increase in the loan impairment charge as compared
to the first half of last year. The UK mortgage book continues to perform well
relative to its peer group based on the Council of UK Mortgage Lenders (CML)
statistics and arrears rates have stabilised in recent months. (Analysis of UK
Financial Services is in pounds sterling)
Other
We expect to generate a profit of circa EUR20 million from our associated
undertakings compared to a loss of EUR10 million in the six months to 30 September
2008. Our effective tax rate on underlying performance is expected to be circa
15%. (The average number of shares in issue for the calculation of underlying
EPS is circa 1,004 million at 31 August 2009).
National Asset Management Agency ("NAMA") and Government Guarantee
Bank of Ireland notes the statement in Dail Eireann on 16 September 2009 by the
Minister for Finance on the operation of the National Asset Management Agency
and the Government Guarantee.
Bank of Ireland acknowledges the very significant efforts made by the Minister
for Finance, his officials in the Department of Finance and the National
Treasury Management Agency in stabilising the financial sector during this
extended period of financial and economic disruption by providing support to
systemically important institutions through a series of key initiatives.
Bank of Ireland has engaged with the National Treasury Management Agency and the
Department of Finance in a constructive and proactive manner over the past 12
months. Bank of Ireland will play a full role in the recovery of the economy by
continuing to support our customers during this economic downturn and by
providing credit to individuals and businesses as appropriate.
Since the announcement of NAMA in April 2009, Bank of Ireland has established a
Specialist Property Group, a new unit of the bank, to manage assets which might
transfer to NAMA and other challenged property loans which would be outside the
scope of NAMA. This unit, with the support of internationally recognised
independent specialist advisory firms, has prepared detailed and current
analyses of the assets which could potentially transfer to NAMA.
The Minister for Finance has announced that it is expected that NAMA will
purchase loans with a book value of c. EUR77bn across the industry, of which Bank
of Ireland could comprise c. EUR16bn or c.21% of the total gross lending to be
transferred. This would account for c.12% of Bank of Ireland total customer
lending at 31 March 2009.
The portfolio of c. EUR16bn can be estimated as follows:
+------------------+----------+--------------+----------------------+----------+
| EUR'bn | Landbank | Development | Associated | Total |
| | | | (Predominately | |
| | | | Investment) | |
+------------------+----------+--------------+----------------------+----------+
| Republic of | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 8.7 |
| Ireland | | | | |
+------------------+----------+--------------+----------------------+----------+
| United Kingdom | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 6.9 |
| incl. Northern | | | | |
| Ireland | | | | |
+------------------+----------+--------------+----------------------+----------+
| Rest of World | - | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
+------------------+----------+--------------+----------------------+----------+
| Total | 4.9 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 16.0 |
+------------------+----------+--------------+----------------------+----------+
In his statement the Minister noted that loan quality, geographic distribution
and type of loan will all vary from institution to institution. He also noted
that each loan will be valued individually. On this basis, the discount to
original loan value will vary from institution to institution.
Bank of Ireland notes the following significant variations between the key
industry valuation metrics across the five institutions referred to by the
Minister, and Bank of Ireland's estimated comparable figures:
+-------------------------+--------------------------+--------------------------+
| | Projected Asset Details | Bank of Ireland |
| | (Total for five | (Estimated Portfolio) |
| | Institutions) | |
+-------------------------+--------------------------+--------------------------+
| Potential book value | EUR77bn | EUR16bn |
| for transfer | | |
+-------------------------+--------------------------+--------------------------+
| Interest roll up | EUR9bn (12%) | EUR1bn (6%) |
+-------------------------+--------------------------+--------------------------+
| Approx average LTV at | 77% | 69% |
| origination | | |
+-------------------------+--------------------------+--------------------------+
| Categorisation of loan | 36% | 31% |
| book: | 28% | 32% |
| Land | 36% | 37% |
| Development | | |
| Associated | | |
| | | |
+-------------------------+--------------------------+--------------------------+
| Geographic mix of loan | 66% | 54% |
| book: | 20% | 30% |
| Republic of Ireland | 6% | 13% |
| Great Britain | 8% | 3% |
| Northern Ireland | | |
| Other | | |
+-------------------------+--------------------------+--------------------------+
On the basis of these positive variations, taking into account the extensive
work that has been done internally over the past year, and the illustrative
methodology set out in the Supplementary Documentation published by the
Department of Finance, Bank of Ireland believes that the discount applicable to
Bank of Ireland loans potentially transferring to NAMA could be significantly
less than the estimated aggregate discount of 30%. The final discount will only
be known on completion of the relevant due diligence and the transfer of the
loans to NAMA
The forecast loan impairment provisions as at 30 September 2009 on the relevant
land and development loans within the estimated portfolio of c. EUR16bn are
projected to be c. EUR1.2bn to EUR1.4bn. Of the relevant associated portfolio
(predominantly investment loans) c.95% is projected to be classified as not
impaired.
It is envisaged that loans would be transferred to NAMA on a phased basis,
commencing with the largest systemic exposures across institutions and it is
expected that by the middle of 2010 most loans would have been transferred. Any
loss on sale arising out of the transfer of the relevant loans would impact the
capital position of Bank of Ireland in the reporting period when the loans would
be transferred.
The subscription of EUR3.5 billion New Preference Stock in March 2009 together
with the buyback of subordinated debt in June 2009 has improved Bank of
Ireland's capital position. The Group's Equity Tier 1 ratio is expected to be in
a range of c.6.5% to 6.7% at 30 September 2009.
Bank of Ireland notes the Government preference that, to the extent further
capital is required by Irish banks, private market solutions should be found and
implemented. In the event that additional capital is required to maintain
appropriate capital levels, Bank of Ireland believes that such equity could be
internally generated and/or through access to the capital markets.
Government Guarantee
The deposits and certain liabilities of Bank of Ireland are guaranteed until 29
September 2010 under the Credit Institutions (Financial Support) Scheme 2008.
The Group notes the announcement of the proposed new guarantee scheme - the
draft Credit Institutions (Eligible Liabilities Guarantee) Scheme 2009. The
Group has also been informed that the cost of both the existing and new
guarantee scheme will increase. For the existing scheme it is expected that a
cost of c. EUR130m will be incurred in the half year to March 2010 compared to
c.EUR110m incurred in the 12 months to September 2009 based on an increase in the
charge factor for liabilities covered by the Guarantee from the present 9.5
basis points to 22.4 basis points. The charge factor for the proposed new
guarantee is expected to be in line with EU guidelines.
The Group welcomes the clarity that the announcement of the new guarantee
provides and the flexibility that the proposed scheme allows with regard to
electing to issue un-guaranteed debt as market conditions continue to improve.
Results announcements
Interim results for the six months to 30 September 2009 will be announced on 4
November 2009 at 7am (GMT).
Ends.
Bank of Ireland will host a conference call today, Thursday 17 September 2009 at
2.00pm BST. Participants are requested to dial in to the call 15 minutes before
the conference call start time.
Conference call dial-in details
Ireland Free Call 1 800 931 691
Ireland Local Call + 353 (0) 1 506 0153
United Kingdom Local Call +44 (0) 1452 565 124
United Kingdom Free Call 0800 953 0810
Conference call identity number 30862967
Replay facility available 30 minutes after the conference call concludes.
International dial-in: +44 (0) 1452 550 000
Access code: 30862967#
In addition, a recording of the call will be available on our website:
www.bankofireland.ie/investor
later this afternoon.
Contact details:
John O'Donovan Group Chief Financial Officer +353 1
632 2054
Geraldine Deighan Head of Group Investor Relations +353 1
604 3501
Dan Loughrey Head of Group Corporate Communications +353 1 604 3833
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENT
This document contains certain forward looking statements within the meaning of
Section 21E of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and Section 27A of the US
Securities Act of 1933 with respect to certain of the Bank of Ireland Group's
(the Group) plans and its current goals and expectations relating to its future
financial condition and performance and the markets in which it operates. These
forward looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate
only to historical or current facts. Forward looking statements sometimes use
words such as 'aim', 'anticipate', 'target', 'expect', 'estimate', 'intend',
'plan', 'goal', 'believe', or other words of similar meaning. Examples of
forward looking statements include among others, statements regarding the
Group's future financial position, income growth, business strategy, projected
costs, projected impairment losses, estimates of capital expenditures, and plans
and objectives for future operations. Because such statements are inherently
subject to risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from
those expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Such risks and
uncertainties include, but are not limited to, risks and uncertainties relating
to profitability targets, prevailing interest rates, the performance of the
Irish and UK economies and the performance and volatility of international
capital markets, the expected level of credit defaults, the Group's ability to
expand certain of its activities, development and implementation of the Group's
strategy, including the ability to achieve estimated cost reductions,
competition, the Group's ability to address information technology issues and
the availability of funding sources. Any forward looking statements speak only
as at the date they are made. The Group does not undertake to release publicly
any revision to these forward looking statements to reflect events,
circumstances or unanticipated events occurring after the date hereof. The
reader should however, consult any additional disclosures that the Group has
made or may make in documents filed or submitted or may make in documents it has
filed or submitted or may file or submit to the US Securities and Exchange
Commission.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END
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