WARSAW--The chances of a peaceful solution to the separatist
conflict in eastern Ukraine are waning and poses the biggest
security threat to Europe since the end of the Cold War, Poland's
defense minister said Thursday.
There is "no reason to believe in Russia's good intentions" as
it tries to block Ukraine's attempts to integrate with Europe,
Tomasz Siemoniak said, adding the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization is well prepared to tackle a potential spillover of
the conflict to the Baltic states.
The alliance has contingency plans for potential events in the
ex-Soviet republics that are now part of NATO, he said.
The conflict in eastern Ukraine intensified recently with the
pro-Russian separatist forces on the offensive, which Kiev and
western officials describe as a fresh infusion of Russian military
personnel and materiel. Moscow denies any military involvement in
the conflict.
"It is clear there are less and less chances for a peaceful
solution to the Ukrainian crisis," Mr. Siemoniak said. "I believe
some very tough months and years are ahead because Russia's clear
intention is to block Ukraine's way towards Europe."
The cease-fire conditions negotiated last year in Minsk aren't
being enforced and there is no new framework for the sides of the
conflict to sit down to negotiate, creating a bleak outlook, the
Polish defense minister said.
"When you talk, you don't fight. When you don't talk, all
scenarios are possible," Mr. Siemoniak said.
Poland considers cooperation with Ukraine as its top priority
and is willing to sell military equipment to the Ukrainian
government under "favorable conditions" and will also accelerate
the creation of a joint Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian brigade.
The Polish government has been a staunch supporter of Kiev in
its struggle against pro-Russian rebels, although Warsaw has become
less vocal since Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz took over from Donald
Tusk last year. The new premier stressed that Poland's own security
was the new administration's top concern.
The intensifying conflict prompted U.S. and European leaders to
threaten new sanctions in the wake of the rebel rocket attack that
killed dozens of Ukrainian civilians last week.
Although Mr. Siemoniak didn't offer outright support for new
sanctions, he said "the climate has changed" from a few weeks ago,
when some EU member states even considered easing sanctions on
Russia. Poland's Foreign Minister Grzegorz Schetyna said on
Thursday that sanctions should be stepped up.
Western officials had hoped Moscow would be forced to back down
through a combination of sanctions and financial pain amid the
plunging price of crude oil, Russia's main export.
But Mr. Putin has been unwilling to order militants to return
control of the Ukraine-Russia border to Kiev, a crucial point of
the September deal. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in
an opinion piece published in Serbian magazine Horizons this week
that the sanctions won't prompt Russia to change its course, which
it sees as a "right and just" defense of its interests.
"We have repeatedly, and in various formats, warned that
attempts to make Kiev choose one vector of its foreign
policy--either west or east--bode most serious adverse consequences
for Ukraine's still fragile statehood. We were not heard," Mr.
Lavrov said in an article republished on his ministry's
website.
Write to Patryk Wasilewski at patryk.wasilewski@wsj.com
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