Polish MPC: Current Rate Level Conducive to Balanced Growth--Update
May 06 2016 - 12:47PM
Dow Jones News
By Martin M. Sobczyk
WARSAW-The National Bank of Poland left its main rate unchanged
at 1.5% Friday, saying that level is conducive to balanced growth
for the Polish economy despite persistent declines to consumer
prices.
Polish consumer prices will continue to fall in annual terms in
the coming quarters because of a significant decline to commodity
prices in global markets, the bank said in a statement. In April,
prices fell 1.1% in annual terms, according to an earlier flash
estimate.
Falling prices aren't a concern at this time for the Polish
central bank, its outgoing governor, Marek Belka, told a press
conference Friday.
"It will go away," he said. "The situation in the labor market
is improving very fast and sooner or later we will see faster
growth of wages, which are factors that should reverse it."
Mr. Belka said Polish deflation hasn't led households to
increase savings, which could hurt consumption, while the finances
of companies are good.
Polish economic growth is driven by growing employment and
wages, as well as an increase of welfare spending, the bank also
said.
It expects first-quarter growth in Poland to be temporarily
lower than in previous quarters. Poland's statistics office is set
to release its flash reading of gross domestic product May 13 and
economists expect it to have expanded 3.4% in annual terms.
The National Bank of Poland in April warned that the growth rate
for the first quarter would be slightly lower than in the fourth
quarter of 2015. At the time, the published reading of Polish
fourth-quarter growth was 3.9% in annual terms. It has since been
revised to 4.3%.
A majority of the Polish central bank's rate council in April
didn't rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in the case
of an economic slowdown and deepening deflation in the country. But
Mr. Belka said Friday that the Monetary Policy Council discussion
Thursday and Friday showed no sign of readiness to change interest
rates and the bank said a more robust growth pace should return
after the first quarter.
Mr. Belka also said the Polish central bank was ready to
intervene to stop any rapid moves in the zloty, which has weakened
some 4% against the euro since the beginning of April to some
PLN4.43 Friday. Much of that move was due to global factors, but
speculation that Moody's Investors Service Inc. may cut Poland's
rating or outlook at its review due May 13 has weighed on the
Polish currency, Mr. Belka said
The Polish central bank chief said he believes that risk is
already priced in and added that the bank has no exchange rate
target or range for the zloty.
Moody's rates Poland at A2 with a stable outlook. Recent
controversial moves by the Polish government to curb the powers of
the nation's constitutional court have led to political strains at
home and in relations with the European Union, leading to Standard
& Poor's Corp. in January cutting its rating of Poland to BBB+
with a negative outlook from A-.
Write to Martin M. Sobczyk at martin.sobczyk@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 06, 2016 12:32 ET (16:32 GMT)
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