Oil Prices Edge Down Ahead of Yellen's Speech
August 25 2016 - 11:06PM
Dow Jones News
By Jenny W. Hsu
Crude oil prices edged lower in early Asian trade on Friday as
market players look to U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet
Yellen's speech later today for hints on U.S. monetary policy.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures
for delivery in October traded at $47.29 a barrel at 0213 GMT, down
$0.04 in the Globex electronic session. October Brent crude on
London's ICE Futures exchange fell $0.09 to $49.58 a barrel.
Ms. Yellen is due to deliver a speech later today at the annual
central bankers' summit at Jackson Hole, Wyo. Analysts and
economists will scrutinize her remarks for clues about rate
increases in the coming months and the Fed's preparations to tackle
the next economic downturn.
An increase in U.S. interest rates would lift the dollar, which
would make oil more expensive for traders who conduct business in
other currencies.
"Traders are skeptical that Yellen will deliver an upbeat
assessment of the U.S. economy, one strong enough to prompt
interest rate hikes," said Stuart Ive, a client manager at OM
Financial.
Oil prices rose overnight after Iran signalled that its oil
minister, Bijan Zanganeh, will attend the informal gathering of the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries members next
month in Algeria.
Iran's attendance could mark a turning point in the cartel's
efforts to stabilize faltering oil prices. Iran snubbed the last
informal OPEC meeting in April, saying it would not entertain the
idea of a production freeze. At that time, sanctions on Iran's oil
exports had only been lifted for four months and the country was
pumping out 3.4 million barrels a day, based on OPEC's monthly
report.
However, with Iran's production at 3.6 million barrels a day and
prices still more than 50% below the $100 a barrel level seen in
mid 2014, some analysts believe a collective production cap would
be in Iran's interests.
Furthermore, as Iran's oil exports and production have reached a
plateau, some within OPEC say Iran hitting a natural ceiling on its
output might be enough to persuade rival Saudi Arabia to join an
output agreement next month. In April, the kingdom also rejected
the freeze proposal after Iran refused to budge.
The ongoing gradual pivot to a rebalance, spurred by declining
production in non-OPEC countries as a result prolonged low prices,
might also give major producers further justification to leave the
output alone and let the market run its course, said Tim Evans, a
Citi Futures analyst.
Smaller OPEC producers whose productions were stifled recently
by militant attacks may also reject a freeze until their production
returns to normal levels.
"We're more concerned with this possibility of additional total
OPEC barrels in the near term - with or without a freeze - than
with the risk that OPEC supply restraint will trigger an
intermediate-term US shale oil renaissance," Mr. Evans added.
Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for September--the
benchmark gasoline contract--fell 44 points to $1.5070 a gallon,
while September diesel traded at $1.5097, 3 points higher.
ICE gasoil for September changed hands at $438.50 a metric ton,
up $1.25 from Thursday's settlement.
-- Harriet Torry and Benoit Faucon contributed to this
article.
Write to Jenny W. Hsu at jenny.hsu@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 25, 2016 22:51 ET (02:51 GMT)
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