NEW YORK (AP) - Low-cost laptops have attracted a lot of attention from
investors and philanthropists as a possible solution to the technology gap in
developing countries. But for now, the gee-whiz image of children e-mailing
their homework from the African savannah remains more fiction than fact.
Few dispute that a market exists for low-cost laptops -- sometimes known as
"netbooks." The no-frills devices were thrust into the limelight at last week's
influential Computex trade show in Taiwan, with new products introduced by Acer,
MSI and AsusTek -- maker of the Asus Eee, arguably the most popular low-cost
laptop with prices starting at $300.
Also at Computex, No. 1 microprocessor maker Intel caused a stir with its
new Atom processor targeted at low-cost laptops. Although Intel chips already
power the Eee, Atom marked a startling wrinkle for a company generally known for
developing chips to be faster, not cheaper.
Notably absent from the low-cost PC party at Computex was Advanced Micro
Devices, Intel's closest rival. However, AMD did introduce a new line of chip
packages for mainstream laptops. And its Geode chips already power the
education-oriented XO-1, the so-called "$100 laptop" made by Quanta Computer.
(Its list price is actually $199.)
Much of the buzz about the potential for low-cost PCs for emerging markets
can be traced to One Laptop per Child, the high-profile nonprofit group that
aims to distribute cheap educational laptops to children around the world,
especially in developing nations.
One Laptop Per Child has achieved some success, shipping nearly 400,000 XO-1
laptops. Additionally, the group has orders for 700,000 more laptops and letters
of credit for another 500,000. Pilot programs have involved schools in about 25
nations as far-flung as Mongolia and Nigeria.
However, the greater market opportunity for low-cost laptops likely exists
in countries that are already technologically savvy, analysts say. The research
firm IDC projects worldwide shipments of low-cost laptops will grow from fewer
than 500,000 units last year to more than 9 million in 2012, with about 80
percent of shipments going to established markets.
But low-cost laptops will still pale in comparison to the overall PC market.
About 264 million PCs were shipped worldwide last year, according to the
research firm Gartner Inc.
"The industry likes to wrap itself around the next big hype, and this is it
in 2008," said Pat Moorhead, vice president of advanced marketing at AMD. "Maybe
it will take off, but for now we're kind of 'wait-and-see' on it."
Luis Anavitarte, vice president covering emerging markets for Gartner,
insists that low-cost laptops have legs in developing nations.
"Obviously, different parts of the world suffer from different levels of
poverty. If we talk about places with extreme poverty, where water and
electricity are scarce, it will be almost impossible to introduce technology to
the schools," he said.
But given that a Web-enabled laptop can replace an entire library full of
books, the opportunity is too great to ignore. The key challenge, Anavitarte
said, is bringing the prices down even further.
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