By Kate Gibson
As U.S. stocks wavered on Wednesday amid quarterly results that have mostly topped expectations, even some self-described bulls say the rapid pace of the market's seven-month climb leaves equities poised for a fall.
"I'm bullish in expecting a consolidation. The advance has been reasonable, but the speed of it versus history has been quick," said Linda Duessel, equity market strategist at Federated Investors.
"By the end of the week or next week at the latest, traders should be looking for a 5% pullback," Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, wrote in a research note.
In looking at the S&P 500 Index (SPX), Duessel cites technical factors in holding the view that the 1,125.00 level will be "a tough number to punch through."
Even so, Federated's near-term target range for the S&P of 1,200 to 1,250 "on a fundamental basis is still very much in place," said Duessel. "We think earnings growth could surprise to the upside, and quite possibly consumer spending," she said.
In looking at price levels and historical trends, the S&P 500 is among the indexes around the globe ready for a pullback, said Nicholas Colas, ConvergEx chief market strategist.
And, if one believes the March lows were truly the bottom, "then there is another leg higher to come, most likely later in 2009," Colas said.
In making a bullish case for stocks, Duessel sees particular strength in the technology sector, and points to quarterly results from Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) as reason for cheer. .
New bar being set
Tuesday's session offers a "perfect example of what it takes to move higher from here in this market," said Pado of the prior day's trade, which had the indexes posting modest losses as data on the housing market overshadowed earnings from Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), United Technologies Corp. (UTX) and Pfizer Inc. (PFE), all of which reported results that topped estimates.
"To say that Caterpillar blew away expectations would be an understatement. From the stock's early October low to yesterday's intra-day high, Cat had gained 29%, only adding the last 3% yesterday. Then you had the likes of UTX and Pfizer, both of which were slightly better than expected and positive going forward. Both stocks were off fractionally, but had gained as much as 11% and 14.6% respectively since Oct. 2. So, if you didn't crush expectations, but beat, you held your ground," Pado wrote.
"Then there was DuPont (DD), just meeting expectations and still sounding more cautious than optimistic. After gaining 17% over the past few weeks, DuPont gave back 2.2% yesterday," the analyst said.
On Wednesday, energy shares paced Wall Street's gains after crude-oil futures pulled to new 2009 highs , while material shares fronted losses.
Off earlier highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lately stood at 10,023.80, off 17.68 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 Index held near flat at 1,091.40, while the technology-laden Nasdaq Composite (RIXF) advanced 4.99 points, or 0.2%, to 2,168.46.