LVMH Defies Economic Headwinds to Ease Investor Concerns -- Update
February 03 2016 - 1:40PM
Dow Jones News
By Jason Chow
PARIS-- LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is defying economic
headwinds in China and other parts of the world, easing investor
worries across the luxury industry.
Chief Executive Bernard Arnault's bullish take on Chinese
demand--supported by a 12% rise in fourth-quarter revenues--fueled
a rise in LVMH shares on Wednesday.
Shares closed at EUR151.75, off a morning peak but still 4.5%
higher than the previous day's close.
Chinese consumers are crucial to the luxury industry, with
experts estimating they account for more than a third of total
overall global luxury spending. China's mixed messages on currency
policy have investors worried over whether the world's
second-largest economy is slowing more sharply than expected.
Mr. Arnault brushed aside those concerns Tuesday night after
LVMH reported EUR10.38 billion ($11.3 billion) in sales during the
last three months of 2015.
"Analysts underestimate the Chinese economy," Mr. Arnault said.
"The fundamentals are good. Household spending is still increasing,
and that's important to us."
LVMH's status as a luxury bellwether--with businesses ranging
from jewelry and watches to the DFS duty-free chain and the Sephora
cosmetics label--helped stabilize share prices across the
industry.
Trading in Kering SA, which owns Gucci and Yves Saint Laurent
slipped 0.1% on Wednesday, while shares in Hermès International SCA
rose 2.2%. The Paris CAC-40 index ended the day down 1.3%.
Mario Ortelli, a luxury analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, said he
was "encouraged by [Mr. Arnault's] confidence going into 2016
despite the volatile economic environment."
Strong demand for LVMH's fashion and leather goods as well as
its alcoholic drinks helped the luxury giant overcome headwinds
that have affected rivals.
The Nov. 13 attacks in Paris sapped demand in a city where many
tourists, particularly the Chinese, come to splurge on luxury
goods. China's anticorruption crackdown continues to hit demand in
other parts of the luxury sphere, most notably in watches.
Swatch Group AG, which owns high-end brands including Longines,
Breguet and Omega, said Wednesday that net profit fell to 1.09
billion Swiss francs from 1.38 billion francs, hurt by the strength
of the Swiss currency and weak demand for expensive timepieces. The
profit figure was also below analysts' expectations.
That news sent shares in the Swiss watch company down as much as
4% in early trading, before rebounding later in the day. Shares
closed at 334.80 Swiss francs, or about 1.2% lower than Tuesday's
close.
Shares fell despite the company's decision to buy back 1 billion
Swiss francs ($982 million) of its shares.
Analysts at Citi said there was "not much to cheer for" in the
latest results, which reflected "adverse macro and geopolitical
environment, global price gap distortion from [foreign-exchange]
volatility and further demand weakness for Swiss watches in Hong
Kong."
While associated by its namesake plastic watch brand, Swatch is
heavily reliant on the high-end brands. About 45% of its sales form
high-end brands like Omega, which retail for more than $7,000, and
20% from its upper end brands like Longines and Rado, which sell
from around $1,200.
Chinese shoppers' shifting tastes, as well as their
sensitivities to currency shifts and political tension, have many
questioning the sector's overall growth this year.
Luca Solca, luxury analyst at Exane BNP Paribas, predicts the
Chinese consumer in 2016 will spend "marginally more at home but
less abroad" if Beijing increases restrictions on capital outflows
and raises taxes.
Most luxury brands are straining to boost sales on mainland
China, Mr. Solca said, because consumers prefer to shop abroad.
That allows them to take advantage of currency arbitrage while
avoiding local import duties and luxury taxes.
Louis Vuitton, however, has bucked that trend, Mr. Solca said,
adding: "Louis Vuitton has the best momentum among soft luxury
megabrands."
John Revill in Zurich contributed to this article.
Write to Jason Chow at jason.chow@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 03, 2016 13:25 ET (18:25 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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