By Carla Mozee, MarketWatch
U.K. inflation rate hits highest since September 2013
U.K. stocks flipped into the red Tuesday, pulled down as the
pound climbed after data showed British inflation rose by the
fastest pace in more than three years.
The FTSE 100 shed 0.3% to 7,400.32, edging back from a record
closing high hit in the previous session, with only the utilities
sector showing gains.
Inflation rose to 2.3% in February, above the Bank of England's
2% target for the first time since September 2013. That stoked
speculation that the central bank may be compelled to raise
interest rates sooner than later, sending the pound surging to an
intraday high of $1.2478 but shoving the FTSE 100 lower.
See:BOE rate hike in May? Pressure mounts after U.K. inflation
jumps to 3-year high
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boe-rate-hike-in-may-pressure-mounts-after-uk-inflation-jumps-to-3-year-high-2017-03-21)
Blue-chip stocks tend to rise when the pound falls, as the
currency's decline can lead to stronger earnings and sales from
overseas for multinational companies. The pound has dropped roughly
17% against the dollar since the U.K. voted last June to leave the
European Union, or Brexit.
Tuesday's data "has shifted the needle because we now know that
inflation is probably going to top 3% by the end of the year. But
we can't just keep hiding behind Brexit. We have to normalize the
economy, we have to have reasonable interest rates and prepare
people ... that borrowing cheap money is over," said Steve Ruffley,
chief market strategist at InterTrader, in a telephone
interview.
A rate hike by the central bank from a record low 0.25% would be
beneficial for profit margins at banks. But shares of banks pared
gains or turned lower in afternoon trade. Barclays PLC (BCS) (BCS)
rose 0.6%, Royal Bank of Scotland PLC shares (RBS.LN) (RBS.LN)
picked up 0.8% but Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY.LN) (LLOY.LN)
declined 0.7%.
Asia-focused lenders Standard Chartered PLC (STAN.LN) turned
down 0.2%, and HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBA.LN) (HSBA.LN) (HSBA.LN)
swung down 0.5%.
The yield on the 10-year gilt also pared its rise, moving up 2
basis points to 1.24%, according to Tradeweb. Higher yields are a
benefit for life insurers. Shares of Standard Life PLC (SL.LN) rose
0.4%.
Utility stocks were also higher after the inflation report, with
National Grid PLC (NG.LN) up 1%.
See:EU sets April date for special Brexit summit
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eu-sets-april-date-for-special-brexit-summit-2017-03-21)
Elevated FTSE: Ruffley expects the Bank of England may begin
raising rates in the first or second quarter of 2018, when policy
makers will have more information about Brexit but before the
country leaves the EU.
The FTSE 100 on Monday rose 0.1% to a record close of 7,429.81
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ftse-100-slips-as-the-pound-hits-3-week-high-2017-03-20),
aided by the pound's drop after the U.K. government said it will
trigger Article 50 on March 29
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-prime-minister-to-trigger-start-of-brexit-process-on-march-29-2017-03-20)
to begin the Brexit process.
"For the stock market to keep going higher on uncertainty is a
very unusual phenomenon," Ruffley said. "A correction in the FTSE,
like all indices, is inevitable. However, more short-term traders
like myself have learned very painful lessons by trying to short
the market," he said.
"Although the FTSE can continue to make new highs and correlate
with the American markets and a drop in the pound, it is
fundamentally due a retracement, and when it happens it's going to
be fast, it's going to be hard," he said.
The index is up 3.7% this year. It leapt 14.4% in 2016.
(https://twitter.com/samueltombs/status/844127352825233409)
Inflation: Rising fuel and food prices contributed to the 2.3%
reading, which was above expectations of 2.1% in a FactSet survey
of analysts. Last week, the central bank voted 8-1 to leave the key
rate steady
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boe-holds-rates-but-takes-hawkish-tone-2017-03-16),
but board member Kristen Forbes wanted a rate hike to stay ahead of
inflationary pressures.
"With inflation set to rise further over the course of this
year, today's data is rather 'big' upside news," said Kallum
Pickering, senior U.K. economist at Berenberg, in a note
Tuesday.
"As our base case, we look for a 25 basis points first rate hike
in Q2 2018, with a 30% chance the BOE raises the bank rate earlier.
After today's data release, risks to that call are skewed towards
the BoE hiking sooner rather than later," Pickering said.
Read:BOE chief Carney warns against giving into 'fatigue' for
post-crisis reforms
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-england-chief-warns-against-giving-into-fatigue-for-post-crisis-reforms-2017-03-17)
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-uk-headed-for-a-snap-election-this-year-bookies-are-more-certain-than-ever-2017-03-20)Read:Is
the U.K. headed for a 'snap' election this year? Bookies are more
certain than ever
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-uk-headed-for-a-snap-election-this-year-bookies-are-more-certain-than-ever-2017-03-20)
And see:The trouble brewing in Scotland for the U.K.'s Theresa
May
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/distracted-by-the-continent-may-ignores-trouble-brewing-in-scotland-2017-03-21)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 21, 2017 11:24 ET (15:24 GMT)
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