Islamic State Lost Almost a Quarter of Its Territory in 2016, IHS Markit Says
January 18 2017 - 7:15PM
Business Wire
Group likely to lose governance structures in Iraq this year;
Mosul to fall by second half of this year
Territory controlled by the Islamic State shrunk by almost a
quarter in 2016, according to new analysis released today by IHS
Markit (Nasdaq: INFO), a world leader in critical information,
analytics and solutions.
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In 2016, the Islamic State’s caliphate shrunk by 23 percent from
78,000 km2 in early January to 60,400 km2 by the end of the year--
an area roughly half the size of North Korea. This compares to a
loss of 14 percent in 2015, when the caliphate shrunk from 90,800
km2 to 78,000 km2.
“The Islamic State suffered unprecedented territorial losses in
2016, including key areas vital for the group’s governance
project,” said Columb Strack, senior analyst and head of the IHS
Conflict Monitor. “This is despite the opportunistic recapture of
Palmyra in December from a Syrian government preoccupied at the
time with Aleppo.”
Loss of territory threatening Islamic State internal
cohesion
Internal Islamic State publications and scholarly discourse
among jihadist theorists reveal increasing disagreement within the
Islamic State over its strategy in the face of territorial losses
and, more significantly, its authority on theological grounds.
“The Islamic State is internally divided into two opposing
doctrinal trends: the mainstream view drawn from Turki al-Bin’ali,
and the more extreme interpretation following the ideas of Ahmed
al-Hazimi,” said Ludovico Carlino, senior analyst with IHS Conflict
Monitor.
The theological dispute initiated by the proponents of
al-Hazimi’s doctrine has led to the most significant doctrinal
challenge inside the Islamic State since its emergence as a
movement, and represents the biggest threat to the Islamic State’s
internal cohesion, the latest IHS Conflict Monitor report said.
“This raises the risk of defections from the Islamic State to rival
jihadist groups in Syria, or even potential internal break-up,”
Carlino said.
Re-capture of Mosul likely by mid-year
Iraqi government forces have made steady progress in the eastern
districts of Mosul, while Hashd al-Shaabi advances to the west of
the city are preventing resupply for the Islamic State. “We expect
Iraqi government forces to recapture Mosul before the second half
of the year,” Strack said. “After Mosul, the Iraqi government will
probably focus its attention on the remaining pocket of resistance
around Hawija, which the jihadists are using as a base for their
campaign of sustained terrorist attacks in Baghdad.”
Capturing Raqqa far more problematic
The eviction of the Islamic State from Raqqa in 2017 is much
more problematic than its loss of Mosul, given the complex
political and military considerations involved, the latest IHS
Conflict Monitor report said.
The Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) ‘Euphrates Wrath’ operation
against the Islamic State has achieved significant advances in
north-western Raqqa province along the eastern bank of the
Euphrates River, with the support of US coalition airstrikes and
Special Forces advisers. However, progress has stalled in the
triangle of more densely populated agricultural land, between the
Euphrates and the Balikh River, which runs north-south joining the
Euphrates in Raqqa.
“Raqqa represents the core of the Islamic State and they are
unlikely to leave without a fight,” Strack said. “It would probably
take a major ground intervention by one of the main external
players, the US, Turkey, or Russian and Iranian-backed Syrian
government forces, to expel the Islamic State from Raqqa in
2017.”
Intelligence cut-off date: 9 January 2017.
About the IHS Conflict
Monitor
The IHS Conflict Monitor is an open-source intelligence
collection and analysis service, which includes unrivalled data
coverage of the conflict in Iraq and Syria, weekly control maps, as
well as in-depth quantitative and qualitative analysis by IHS
Jane’s security experts.
Visit our site to learn more about the service and a free trial:
https://www.ihs.com/products/conflictmonitor.html or get in touch
here.
About IHS Markit
(www.ihsmarkit.com)
IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) is a world leader in critical
information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and
markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers
next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers
in business, finance and government, improving their operational
efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed,
confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 key business
and government customers, including 85 percent of the Fortune
Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions.
Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable,
profitable growth.
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respective owners © 2017 IHS Markit Ltd. All rights reserved.
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IHS MarkitAmanda Russo, +44
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303-305-8021press@ihs.com
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