In Europe, Four Main Concerns About Trump
February 26 2017 - 2:03PM
Dow Jones News
Simon Nixon
When Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress this
week, his words will be studied with closer attention than usual in
Europe.
Across the Atlantic, Mr. Trump's arrival on the world stage has
been met with widespread anxiety. Many fear that his America First
rhetoric, skepticism toward multilateral institutions and
enthusiasm for Brexit signals a disengagement from the rules-based
order that most Europeans consider the bedrock of their prosperity
and security.
Yet ironically, the immediate economic impact of Mr. Trump's
arrival has been positive for Europe. Last week's eurozone
composite Purchasing Managers Index showed the economy expanding at
its fastest rate in 6 1/2 years and jobs are being created at the
fastest rate in nearly a decade, while the Stoxx Europe 600 index
of leading European equities is up 13% since Nov. 8. That may
partly reflect an improved global growth picture. But Mr. Trump can
take some credit: expectations that his promised tax cuts and
deregulation will deliver faster U.S. growth have lifted the
eurozone too, not least by halting the appreciation of the euro,
down 4% against the dollar since the election.
There may be more good news to come. Mr. Trump may already have
indirectly helped deliver progress toward a more durable solution
to Greece's debt crisis. International Monetary Fund officials
believe that the new administration's skepticism toward
multilateral organizations has strengthened their negotiating
position in the latest brinkmanship over Greece's bailout.
Whereas the Obama administration used to put pressure on the
Fund to soften its demands to accommodate European political
interests, the Fund has been emboldened to stand firm with the
result that last week both Berlin and Athens appeared to give
ground. Similarly, Mr. Trump's insistence that European countries
increase their military spending could provide a useful stimulus,
particularly if the EU exempts any increased defense spending from
the its fiscal rules.
Nonetheless, European policy makers have four major anxieties.
The first concerns the Trump administration's policy toward the
dollar. So far, China, Japan and Germany have all found themselves
in the rhetorical firing line for benefiting from an undervalued
currency.
Attempts to weaken the dollar, whether through excessively loose
monetary policy or by talking it down, pose a risk to the
eurozone's recovery. History is hardly reassuring: going back more
than 40 years, Republican presidents have presided over a weakening
of the dollar with the exception of the first Reagan
administration.
Second, Europeans want to know whether America First will evolve
into outright protectionism. There is particular alarm in Europe at
talk in Washington of a border-adjusted tax, which would oblige
companies to pay tax on imports but not on exports.
This would hit hard European exporters such as Germany that
would find their goods at a disadvantage to domestic U.S.
competitors, damaging the European recovery. Worse, a U.S. border
tax would risk retaliatory action, raising the prospect of a
damaging trans-Atlantic trade war.
The third concern relates to Mr. Trump's plans for financial
deregulation. Some eurozone policy makers would have no problem
with a watering down of the Volcker rule -- which prohibits banks
from trading on their own account -- or loosening the rules around
securitization.
What they really worry about is a U.S. retreat from the Basel
bank capital rules; one top official reckons this would be reckless
since loosening capital rules when central banks are running loose
monetary policy would replicate the conditions that led to the
global financial crisis. It would also create an unlevel playing
field between U.S. and European financial institutions, fueling
demands for protection. The result would be further damaging
fragmentation of the global financial system.
The fourth concern is that Mr. Trump damages Europe economically
by deepening its political divisions. Until now, most U.S.
conservatives have focused their criticism of Europe on its high
welfare spending and rigid product and labor markets which have
held back its growth and productivity. Many European policy makers
have privately welcomed this criticism since it reinforces their
own calls for the bold overhauls needed to make European economies
flexible enough to cope with the disciplines of a common
currency.
But Mr. Trump and other administration officials have aimed
their strongest criticism not at outdated European socialism but
the institutions of the EU and the single currency itself. That has
played into the hands of euroskeptic parties opposed to any reforms
but determined to destroy the EU and single currency.
So far, there is little evidence that the markets share these
concerns: Even as measures of political uncertainty have risen, the
equity risk premium -- the extra return that investors demand for
holding stocks -- has fallen in Europe, notes Ian Harnett, chief
economist of Absolute Strategy Research, an advisory firm. Perhaps
that's the right call. After all, veteran European policy makers
recall the widespread anxiety when Silvio Berlusconi became prime
minister of Italy in 1994.
Yet Italy's domestic institutions were strong enough to restrain
Mr. Berlusconi's populist instincts enough to maintain confidence
in Italy's ability to continue to service its giant debts.
Investors may be betting that U.S. institutions will be strong
enough to restrain Mr. Trump too -- even if European politicians
have yet to be convinced.
Write to Simon Nixon at simon.nixon@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 26, 2017 13:48 ET (18:48 GMT)
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