By Christopher Whittall and Min Zeng
Investors piled into safe-haven sovereign debt on Monday,
pushing the yield on 10-year U.K. government bonds below 1% for the
first time and the yield on the U.S. 10-year note down near a
record low amid continued fallout from Britain's vote to exit the
European Union.
The 10-year gilt's yield fell by around 0.15 of a percentage
point to a record close of 0.95% as prices declined, according to
Tradeweb. In recent trading, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
was 1.469%, according to Tradeweb, from 1.577% Friday. Yields fall
as bond prices rise. The yield's record closing low was 1.404% in
July 2012.
German bunds and other developed market debt also gained on the
broad-based risk aversion sweeping markets following Thursday's
"Brexit" vote, which has sent investors out of equities and riskier
corporate bonds and into the safety of sovereign debt and gold.
"It is a flight-to-quality effect," said Olivier De Larouzière,
head of interest rates at Natixis Asset Management.
The global selloff and concerns over economic growth have led
investors to predict rate cuts from some countries and a further
postponement for the U.S. Federal Reserve in raising rates, further
influencing how government debt trades.
The sharpest drops so far have been in U.K. government bond
yields, which accounted for roughly a quarter of all European
sovereign bond trading volumes on Monday, according to MarketAxess,
a trading platform. The yield on 10-year gilts has now dropped
roughly 0.4 of a percentage point since Britain voted Thursday to
leave the EU.
"Also on Monday, the British pound sank to its lowest level in
over 30 years and investors dumped U.K. midcap stocks and banking
shares, extending the steep falls at the end of last week.
"Because the U.K. is the epicenter of the uncertainty, it makes
sense the rally [in gilts] is so strong," said Russell Silberston,
a fund manager at Investec Asset Management.
In the run-up to the referendum, investors had been split on
which direction gilts would trade if Britain voted to leave the
EU.
Some argued international investors would shun all U.K. assets
and sell gilts, while others predicted British government debt
would keep its haven status and rally as funds continued to dial
back risk. So far, the haven argument has won.
Now gilt investors are working out how the Bank of England will
react. The BOE faces a choice between lowering interest rates to
provide relief to the economy from any adverse consequences of
exiting the EU, or raising them to defend the pound.
According to one key metric, investors are now expecting a rate
cut in the coming months. The instantaneous overnight index swap
forward curve, a measure published daily by the Bank of England
based on a type of traded derivative, suggested investors as of the
end of Friday expected a 0.25 percentage point cut in interest
rates by October.
Gilts would benefit further from lower interest rates, while
tighter monetary policy would likely hit the market.
"Gilts have outperformed partly because the markets are pricing
in expectations of the Bank of England cutting interest rates,"
said Mike Riddell, a portfolio manager at Allianz Global
Investors.
Investors are also weighing how the market's reaction to the
British vote will affect what the U.S. Federal Reserve does. There
is a growing belief that the Fed may not be able to raise interest
rates this year, especially if the U.S. growth momentum slows
down.
Interest rate futures suggest some investors have started to bet
that the Fed may need to reverse its tightening policy, showing how
anxious some are to the potential fallout from Brexit.
The Brexit vote "provides rationale for central banks to run a
looser policy," said Steven Major, global head of fixed-income
research at HSBC Holdings PLC. "For the U.S., the hikes have been
correctly priced-out."
The yield on the two-year Treasury note, highly sensitive to the
Fed's policy outlook, was recently at 0.580%, down from 0.653%
Friday.
U.S. yields are also falling as lower returns overseas push
investors to look to one of the few developed economy markets still
offering income.
Aaron Kohli, interest-rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets,
said it won't surprise him to see U.S. bond yields hit record lows
if riskier assets, such as banking stocks in Europe, continue to
take a hit from the fallout.
Also Monday, the yield on 10-year German debt was around 0.05
percentage point lower at minus 0.11%. In Japan, the 10-year
government bond was yielding negative 0.199%.
Still, Mr. Kohli advises clients to wait for a pullback in the
bond market to buy at cheaper price levels, or more attractive
yields.
Write to Christopher Whittall at christopher.whittall@wsj.com
and Min Zeng at min.zeng@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 27, 2016 13:43 ET (17:43 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.