NEW YORK, Jan. 26, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Global
consumer confidence ended 2014 with an index score of 96—a decline
of two index points from the previous quarter, which comes after
several quarters of positive momentum, according to a new study by
Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and insights into
what consumers watch and buy. While confidence fell slightly in
every region in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter,
year-over-year, the index is still above a pre-recession level of
94 from third-quarter 2007.
Consumer confidence declined one point in North America (106) and Asia-Pacific (106) in the fourth quarter—the
only regions to score above the baseline reading of 100. Confidence
also decreased one point in the Middle
East/Africa (95), three
points in Latin America (88) and
two points in Europe (76) from the
previous quarter.
Among the world's biggest economies, consumer confidence
decreased two points in the U.S. (106), four points in China (107) and four points in Japan (73). Conversely, confidence rose one
point each in Germany (98) and in
the U.K. (94).
"Confidence in more than half of the global markets measured
retreated slightly in the fourth quarter with continued
geopolitical tensions and some slowing in emerging-market growth,"
said Louise Keely, senior vice
president, Nielsen and president, The Demand Institute. "Latin
American markets, such as Brazil,
saw particularly large declines in confidence compared to last
quarter and a year ago, reflective of the economic slowdown there.
While recovery in Europe continues
to be weak, and there is recent speculation of quantitative easing
by the European Central Bank, confidence is still up
slightly in most economies from a year ago, suggesting that fears
of yet another eurozone recession have not yet hit overall
consumers' outlook. In the U.S., where labor markets have continued
to recover, confidence is up significantly from its level a year
ago."
IT'S NOT ALL BAD NEWS: YEAR-OVER-YEAR PERFORMANCE IS
POSITIVE
Progress is slow, but it is indeed taking place in more than
half of global markets measured. Confidence scores in 39 of 60
markets improved year over year. Eleven markets reported
double-digit confidence climbs, including the U.S. and the U.K.,
which rose 12 and 10 points, respectively. Other notable increases
from the previous year include Romania (+15), Egypt (+14) Ireland (+13) and Bulgaria (+13).
Year-over-year key indicator performance metrics improved most
dramatically in North America. Job
prospect expectations rose 12 percentage points to 50%, the state
of personal finances increased six percentage points to 64% and
immediate spending intentions jumped eight percentage points to 51%
in the 12-month period.
Just under half of global respondents (49%) believed the job
market would be good or excellent in the next 12 months, up from
47% in fourth-quarter 2013. Likewise, perceptions of personal
finances slightly improved to 56% (from 55% the previous year) and
immediate spending intentions rose to 40% (from 38%).
"There was a small step back in the fourth quarter reflecting
some increased consumer apprehension, following improvements across
the whole of 2014," said Keely. "Some regions of the world are
still not out of the woods, including the eurozone, while
others—like China and some Latin
American countries—may be entering a period of slower growth in
2015."
RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVED FOR MOST IN 2014
Just over half of the global respondents (53%) believed they
were in a recession in the fourth quarter, a one-percentage point
improvement from the previous quarter and a four-point improvement
from the previous year (Q4 2013). In total, 58% of global markets
measured reported a year-over-year recessionary-sentiment
improvement.
Global discretionary spending/saving intentions were either flat
or declined slightly in the fourth quarter. Almost half (48%) plan
to save their spare cash, about three-in-10 expect to spend on
holiday/vacations (34%), new clothes (34%) and out-of-home
entertainment (30%). One-fourth of global respondents plan to buy
new technology (24%) and pay off debts (25%). One-fifth will spend
on home improvements (21%) and invest in stocks (21%), and
one-in-10 will save for retirement (10%). Globally, 13% of
respondents said they have no spare cash.
NORTH AMERICAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS STILL
STRONG
U.S. consumer confidence decreased two index points in the
fourth quarter to a score of 106—the first decline in 2014, but a
12-point improvement from the previous year. Confidence also
declined in Canada, falling one
point to an index level of 102 from the previous quarter.
While all U.S. consumer confidence indicators decreased slightly
in the fourth quarter, there were significant year-over-year
improvements: Job prospect confidence increased 13 percentage
points to 50%, personal finance confidence increased six percentage
points to 64% and the percentage of respondents who believe now is
a good time to spend increased nine percentage points to 52%, from
fourth-quarter 2013.
"Despite the most recent declines in the U.S. for job prospects
and personal finances, consumers appear to be more upbeat than
other regions going into 2015," said Keely. "Declining
unemployment, falling oil prices and the continued low interest
rates together place consumers in the world's largest economy in a
better position to spend than in recent years."
PROGRESS IN EUROPE REMAINS
SLOW
Clouds of pessimism returned to the eurozone in the fourth
quarter, with confidence declining in 20 of 32 markets. Only
Denmark, with a consumer
confidence score of 103, had an optimistic reading, and
Germany and Switzerland were the only two countries where
half of respondents (49% and 56%, respectively) were optimistic
about job prospects in the next 12 months.
Confidence in Germany, the
biggest economy in the region, increased one index point to a score
of 98—a continuation of small upticks that have occurred over the
past several quarters to a near-baseline score, which stands in
stark contrast to the region's average index score of 76. The
biggest regional index increase compared to the third quarter came
from Ireland (+6 to 90).
Conversely, Russia's index
declined eight points to a score of 79 after three consecutive
quarters of increases. Italy (45)
and France (57) also declined,
dropping two points each, compared to the third quarter.
CONFIDENCE IN ASIA-PACIFIC
IS STILL HIGH DESPITE RECENT DECLINES
Consumer confidence in Asia-Pacific increased in only three of 14
markets measured in the fourth quarter, but nine of 14 countries
remain at or above the 100-optimism baseline. China's index fell four points to 107 in the
fourth quarter, which comes after four consecutive quarters at
111.
Malaysia reported the most
dramatic consumer confidence decline in the region, falling 10
points to 89—the lowest score since 2009. Confidence also declined
five points in Indonesia (120) and
four points each in Australia
(93), Japan (73) and South Korea (48).
LATIN AMERICAN CONFIDENCE CONTINUES A DOWNWARD SLIDE
Confidence in the Latin America
region decreased three index points to a score of 88 in the fourth
quarter, as scores fell in five of the seven countries measured.
Peru was the only country in the
region with an improved score, rising four points to 101—the
highest score in the region and outperforming Brazil (95) for the first time since 2011.
Confidence in Brazil dropped six
points quarterly—the biggest decline and lowest score for the
country since 2011. Mexico (85)
decreased three points, Colombia
(94) and Chile (81) decreased four
points each and Argentina (67)
dropped one point in the fourth quarter. Venezuela's (70) score was flat from the
previous quarter.
The outlook for job prospects declined in three of seven Latin
American countries and perceptions of personal finances fell in
every country except Peru. A
recessionary sentiment worsened by seven percentage points in both
Brazil (73%) and Chile (59%)—the highest levels since the start
of tracking this sentiment in 2008.
Discretionary spending intentions showed the most dramatic pull
back of all the regions, with decreases of five percentage points
for new clothes (24%) and home improvements (15%), four points for
new technology (16%), three points for saving (28%) and two points
for out-of-home entertainment (30%). Almost one-in-five respondents
(18%) said they have no spare cash, a quarterly increase of two
percentage points.
THE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA REGION SHOWS SLOW BUT STABLE
PROGRESS
Consumer confidence increased in three of five countries
measured in the Middle
East/Africa region in the
fourth quarter. At 114, the United Arab
Emirates had the highest index in the region, an increase of
two points from the third quarter. Confidence also increased five
points in Egypt to 90 and two
points in South Africa to 88.
Conversely, confidence decreased three points in Saudi Arabia to 102 and two points in
Pakistan to 101.
Regionally, quarter-on-quarter discretionary spending intentions
in the fourth quarter increased four percentage points each for new
clothes (27%) and out-of-home entertainment (23%), two percentage
points each for paying off debts (20%) and home improvements (17%)
and one percentage point for retirement (6%). Twenty-two percent of
Middle East/Africa respondents said they have no spare
cash, which was flat from the previous quarter and the highest
percentage of any region.
CONFIDENCE RISES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Consumer confidence increased four index points in Nigeria in the fourth quarter to a score of
127—the highest score of the three countries measured in Nielsen's
mobile survey for sub-Saharan Africa.
The perceived outlook for job prospects increased 12 percentage
points in Kenya (62%), six
percentage points in Nigeria (64%)
and remained flat in Ghana (42%).
Eight-two percent of Nigerian respondents were confident about
their personal finances, but only just over half (56%) believed now
was a good time to spend. In Kenya, 69% of respondents believed money
matters were good or excellent, and 41% were confident in their
current spending capacity—an increase of five percentage points
from the third quarter. Likewise, 66% of respondents in
Ghana were optimistic about their
finances, and 36% were confident about spending.
Confidence also increased eight points in Kenya (113) and five points in Ghana (102) from the third quarter. The
majority of respondents in the three countries (70% in Ghana, 61% in Nigeria and 59% in Kenya) did not have spare cash, a level that
decreased in Kenya and
Nigeria from the third quarter.
Among those who did have discretionary funds, saving was a priority
for 89% in Kenya, 86% in
Nigeria, and 85% in Ghana, followed by spending on home
improvement projects (73% in Kenya, 73% in Nigeria and 71% in Ghana).
ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY
The Nielsen Global Survey, which includes the Global Consumer
Confidence Index, was established in 2005. This Nielsen Global
Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions was conducted
Nov. 10-28, 2014 and polled more than
30,000 online consumers in 60 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin
America, the Middle
East/Africa and
North America. The sample has
quotas based on age and sex for each country based on its Internet
users and is weighted to be representative of Internet consumers.
It has a margin of error of ±0.6%. This Nielsen survey is based
only on the behavior of respondents with online access. Internet
penetration rates vary by country.
Nielsen uses a minimum reporting standard of 60% Internet
penetration or an online population of 10 million for survey
inclusion. The China Consumer Confidence Index is compiled from a
separate mixed methodology survey among 3,500 respondents in
China.
The sub-Saharan African countries in this study are compiled
from a separate mobile methodology survey among 1,600 respondents
in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. These three countries were added to
Nielsen's measurement of consumer confidence in the first quarter
of 2014 using a mobile survey methodology, which differs from the
online methodology used to report consumer confidence and spending
intentions for the other 60 countries outlined in this report. As
such, the three sub-Saharan African markets are not included in the
global or Middle East/Africa averages discussed throughout this
report.
ABOUT NIELSEN
Nielsen N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) is a global information and
measurement company with leading market positions in marketing and
consumer information, television and other media measurement,
online intelligence and mobile measurement. Nielsen has a presence
in approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA and Diemen, the Netherlands. For more information, visit
www.nielsen.com.
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SOURCE Nielsen