Global Auto Sales Growth to Slow in 2018, Yet Remain at Record Levels; 95.9 Million Light Vehicles Forecast to Be Sold in 201...
January 11 2018 - 8:00AM
Business Wire
As final light vehicle sales figures for the month of December
are now fully reported from major markets, 2017 remained on track
to achieve record auto sales on a global level, for the 8th year in
a row. For December 2017, global auto sales did not finish as
strong as expected. With 8.65 million units sold in December,
global sales volume is down 1.7 percent over last year, according
to the newest forecast from business information provider IHS
Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).
Total 2017 global light vehicle sales are expected to post
around 94.5 million units, a new record -- up 2.4 percent compared
with 2016, according to IHS Markit forecasts.
After the strong performance of 2017, 2018 is forecast to see a
slowdown in global light vehicle sales growth, yet IHS Markit
forecasts a positive year to come, with global light vehicle sales
estimated to reach 95.9 million units.
“While this forecast reflects a slight moderation, it is
concerning to us,” said Henner Lehne, executive director, global
vehicle forecasting for IHS Markit. “We expect 2018 will be yet
another record-setting year for the global auto industry, up 1.5
percent from 2017.”
Regional outlooks influenced by economics, incentives and
geopolitical concerns
Regional forecasts will be influenced by a number of factors,
depending on each region’s economic and political climate, IHS
Markit says. For the United States, the strong fourth quarter 2017
results could impact early 2018 industry sales, but full-year sales
volume in 2018 is expected to achieve 16.9 million units, down 1.7
percent from 2017. Demand remains healthy, supported by positive
economic conditions and welcoming credit conditions, but an
incoming flow of used vehicles and continued slowdown in passenger
car sales as more consumers opt for utility vehicles are expected
to lead to decline for the second year in a row.
Western Europe continues to recover, aided by lingering pent-up
demand in key recovery markets, however at a much lower pace than
last year. Some markets have OEM diesel incentives, which are
expected to generate mild pulled-forward demand, although buyers
are not exactly queuing around the block at local dealerships—IHS
Markit forecasts 16.3 million units for 2018, up about 0.7 percent
in Western Europe.
Factoring in tax payback effects, Chinese demand will post 28.1
million units, up 0.2 percent from 2017, according to the forecast.
As in 2016, confirmation of 2018 vehicle tax levels will obviously
have a bearing on the near-term outlook for the year.
The South Asian outlook has improved dramatically and should
further recover in 2018 as IHS Markit estimates this market will be
up 7.3 percent from 2017, with India accelerating after tax reforms
(up 11 percent). The forecast also indicates a decent 2018 outlook
for ASEAN car markets, estimating 7 percent growth over last year.
Japan and South Korea remain similarly impacted by regional
geopolitical concerns and are expected to moderate in 2018—Japan
slows 2.4 percent, while Korea will likely grow 2 percent. Russia
and Brazil turned the corner in 2017, and 2018 represents the
sustainability test for both recoveries. Russia is expected to grow
by 15.9 percent, helped by a stronger rouble and some recovery in
oil prices, but sanctions remain a key negative driver. Ongoing
political troubles remain an issue, but Brazil is expected to see
12.5 percent growth for 2018, driven by pent-up demand and
improving auto-financing conditions.
Last, there are the core Middle Eastern car markets. Most
countries are forecast to show strong growth percentage gains, in
light of solid economic outlooks, fueled by rising oil prices.
However, the recent developments in Iran need to be monitored
closely. At the moment, the region is forecast to grow at around 5
percent to about 3.4 million new vehicles sales in 2018.
About IHS Markit
(www.ihsmarkit.com)
IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) is a world leader in critical
information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and
markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers
next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers
in business, finance and government, improving their operational
efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed,
confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 key business
and government customers, including 85 percent of the Fortune
Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions.
Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable,
profitable growth.
Automotive offerings and expertise at IHS Markit span every
major market and the entire automotive value chain—from product
planning to marketing, sales and the aftermarket. For additional
information, please visit www.ihsmarkit.com/automotive or email
automotive@ihsmarkit.com.
IHS Markit is a registered trademark of IHS Markit Ltd and/or
its affiliates. All other company and product names may be
trademarks of their respective owners © 2018 IHS Markit Ltd. All
rights reserved.
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IHS MarkitMichelle Culver, +1
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303-305-8021press@ihs.comFollow @IHS_News
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