TOKYO (Thomson Financial) - The US dollar was firmer against other major
currencies in Asian morning trading Monday, continuing its rebound late last
week, but was held within narrow ranges, with Asian players unwilling to move
the market because of a lack of fresh trading leads and in the absence of
players from further afield because of public holidays.
At 9.41 am (0041 GMT) in Tokyo, the dollar was at 99.77 yen, compared to
99.56-99.66 yen in late trading in New York last week. The euro was at 1.5403
dollars, compared to 1.5426-1.5436 dollars in New York.
The US currency was well bid after a survey showed last week that
Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity was not as weak as expected and
commodity prices continued to fall.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said its Philly Fed manufacturing
index improved to minus 17.4 in March from minus 24.0 in February. The median
estimate for this month among economists surveyed by IFR Markets was minus 20.0.
But investors are now awaiting more US economic data, including the release
later today of the National Association of Realtors existing home sales figures
and the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices on Tuesday.
"The recent rebound of the dollar reflected partly the market's view that
the credit crunch might have passed through its very worst phase following the
bailout of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan," said Ryohei Muramatsu, head of Group
Treasury Asia at Commerzbank in Tokyo.
"But it would still be premature to judge that last week's movement signals
a fully fledged rebound of the dollar, because the rise seems to have been the
result of active position-adjustment ahead of the long Easter holiday break," he
said.
But John Noonan of Thomson/IFR Markets thinks last week's price action in
all of the asset markets was extraordinary, and could mean a sea change for the
correlations that drive the forex market.
"For months and months this would correlate with the Australian dollar, New
Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar gaining at the expense of the yen, as
investor enthusiasm would spill over to carry-trade demand," Noonan said.
"Last week the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar
fell between 2 percent and 3 percent against the yen, suggesting that
correlations are changing, and radically so," he said.
Wall Street staged a strong rally last week and the Dow Jones Industrial
Average ended the week up around 3.5 percent.
The New York Mercantile Exchange's benchmark oil futures contract dipped
briefly below 100 US dollar per barrel level last week.
Tokyo 9.41 pm (0041 GMT)
US dollar
yen 99.77
sfr 1.0141
Euro
usd 1.5403
stg 0.7786
yen 153.68
sfr 1.5617
Sterling
usd 1.9780
yen 197.35
sfr 2.0058
Australian dollar
usd 0.8997
stg 0.4548
yen 89.76
yasuhiko.seki@thomson.com
yas/jm
COPYRIGHT
Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2008. All rights reserved.
The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content,
including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior
written consent of Thomson Financial News.
|