Fed's Fischer: 'Good Reason' to Think U.S. Inflation Will Move Higher
August 29 2015 - 12:55PM
Dow Jones News
By Ben Leubsdorf
JACKSON HOLE, Wyo.--The Federal Reserve's No. 2 official said
there is "good reason" to think sluggish U.S. inflation will firm
and move back toward the U.S. central bank's 2% annual target,
touching on a significant assessment facing the Fed ahead of its
September policy meeting.
"Given the apparent stability of inflation expectations, there
is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the
forces holding down inflation dissipate further," Fed Vice Chairman
Stanley Fischer said Saturday in remarks prepared for delivery at
the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual economic
symposium.
In its last policy statement, the Fed said its first
interest-rate increase will come after "some further improvement in
the labor market" and when officials are "reasonably confident"
inflation will move back to the central bank's 2% annual
target.
Mr. Fischer, in his Saturday remarks, didn't declare whether
those conditions had been fulfilled. He said the Fed awaits the
Labor Department's August jobs report, due out Sept. 4. On
inflation, "with regard to our degree of confidence in this
expectation, we will need to consider all the available information
and assess its implications for the economic outlook before coming
to a judgment," he said.
On Friday, Mr. Fischer told CNBC that "it's early to tell" what
the Fed will do at its Sept. 16-17 policy meeting. Some policy
makers in recent days have signaled support for beginning to raise
short-term interest rates that have been pinned near zero since
December 2008, while others have said recent financial-market
volatility and worries about China's economy could justify delaying
the long-awaited liftoff.
Mr. Fischer said Saturday that Fed officials at the moment "are
following developments in the Chinese economy and their actual and
potential effects on other economies even more closely than
usual."
In his remarks, Mr. Fischer discussed various forces that he
said have restrained U.S. inflation, including declines in energy
prices, softness in non-oil commodity prices, a strengthening of
the dollar and "ongoing economic slack."
Despite improvement in the labor market, "we have seen no clear
evidence of core inflation moving higher over the past few years,"
Mr. Fischer said. "This fact helps drive home an important point:
While much evidence points to at least some ongoing role for slack
in helping to explain movements in inflation, this influence is
typically estimated to be modest in magnitude, and can easily be
masked by other factors."
Write to Ben Leubsdorf at ben.leubsdorf@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 29, 2015 12:40 ET (16:40 GMT)
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