ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy Sees Global Increase in Future Demand
December 09 2014 - 1:00PM
Business Wire
- Global energy demand seen rising 35
percent from 2010 to 2040
- Energy demand shifts strongly to
developing nations as middle class expands
- North America to become a net exporter
of oil and natural gas
Significant growth in the global middle class, expansion of
emerging economies and an additional 2 billion people in the world
will contribute to a 35 percent increase in energy demand by 2040,
according to a new report released today by ExxonMobil.
As demand increases, the world will continue to become more
efficient in its energy use, according to the 2015 Outlook for
Energy: A View to 2040. Without efficiency gains across economies
worldwide, energy demand from 2010 to 2040 would be headed toward a
140 percent increase instead of the 35 percent forecast in the
report.
ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy projects that carbon-based fuels
will continue to meet about three quarters of global energy needs
through 2040, which is consistent with all credible projections,
including those made by the International Energy Agency. The
outlook shows a shift toward lower-carbon fuels in the coming
decades that, in combination with efficiency gains, will lead to a
gradual decline in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.
Wind, solar and biofuels are expected to be the fastest-growing
energy sources, increasing about 6 percent a year on average
through 2040, when they will be approaching 4 percent of global
energy demand. Renewables in total will account for about 15
percent of energy demand in 2040. Nuclear energy, one of the
fastest-growing energy sources, is expected to nearly double from
2010 to 2040, with growth in the Asia Pacific region, led by China,
accounting for about 75 percent of the increase.
“This research offers important perspective about the factors
that will drive the world’s energy needs in the coming decades,”
said Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and chief executive officer of
Exxon Mobil Corporation. “Helping individuals, businesses and
governments to better understand the elements that shape future
energy supply and demand around the world is essential to aid
investments and create effective energy policy.”
The Outlook for Energy provides ExxonMobil’s long-term view of
global energy demand and supply. Its findings help guide the
company’s investments, which support its business strategy. The
outlook is developed by examining energy supply and demand trends
in 100 countries, 15 demand sectors covering all manner of personal
and business needs and 20 different energy types.
The global middle class is expected to climb from about 2
billion in 2010 to almost 5 billion people by 2030, representing
more than half of the world’s population, according to the
Brookings Institution. As projected, that middle class expansion –
largely in India and China – will be the largest in history and
will have a profound impact on energy demand. Along with income
gains, on-going societal changes such as expanded infrastructure,
electrification and urbanization will contribute to greater energy
use.
The Outlook for Energy identifies a significant evolution in the
trade of oil and other liquids. A major shift is seen as North
America will likely become a net exporter of liquids by 2020 as
supplies of so-called tight oil, natural gas liquids and bitumen
from oil sands increase. This is expected to open new trading
opportunities as Asia Pacific’s net imports are projected to rise
by nearly 80 percent by 2040. Africa’s liquids exports are expected
to decline as local demand more than doubles. In Latin America,
growth in supplies is anticipated to outpace demand as supplies of
deepwater and unconventional liquids expand.
North America unconventional gas production will nearly triple
by 2040 and the region is expected to surpass the combined output
of Russia and the Caspian region as the largest gas-producing area.
In Asia Pacific, gas production is seen doubling by 2040, driven
partly by unconventional production technologies. Demand in the
region is expected to climb by about 170 percent, according to the
outlook, and as a result, Asia Pacific will likely overtake Europe
as the world’s largest gas importer.
Natural gas is expected to be the fastest-growing major fuel
source during the outlook period as demand increases by about 65
percent. Half of that increase will come from the Asia Pacific
region, led by China. Utilities and industrial operations are
expected to account for about 80 percent of the demand increase
worldwide, as operators increasingly choose natural gas because of
its lower emissions and versatility as a fuel and feedstock. By
2040, natural gas is expected to account for more than a quarter of
global energy use, surpassing coal in the overall mix.
Demand for coal is expected to rise through 2025 and then
decline as China’s economic growth gradually slows and it follows
the shift seen in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) countries toward cleaner fuels. Still, over
time, global coal demand is expected to remain most prominent in
Asia Pacific, primarily to support growing power-generation
requirements.
Other key findings of the outlook include:
- Non-OECD countries will represent 70
percent of global energy demand by 2040, but energy demand per
person in these nations will remain well below OECD levels.
- Energy required to meet rising
electricity demand will account for about half of total demand
growth.
- Technologies that unlock new
unconventional oil and gas supplies will help enable oil and
natural gas to meet about 65 percent of global energy demand
growth.
- Progress on curbing carbon dioxide
emissions through 2040 will be led by OECD nations as energy demand
declines and a shift to lower-carbon fuels occurs. Energy-related
carbon dioxide emissions in those countries are projected to be
about 10 percent below 1980 levels, even though they will have
about 40 percent more people and significantly larger
economies.
- Across OECD nations, the outlook
assumes the implied cost of policies to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions will reach about $80 per tonne in 2040.
- Oil is expected to remain the No. 1
energy source and demand will increase by nearly 30 percent, driven
by expanding needs for transportation and chemicals.
- By 2040, abundant sources other than
conventional crude and condensate will account for about 45 percent
of global liquids production, compared with less than 25 percent in
2010. Remarkably, estimates of remaining recoverable crude and
condensate relative to current demand have risen from about 60
years in 1981 to about 150 years as of 2013.
- Rising natural gas demand will be met
with abundant new supplies and significant expansion in trade as
unconventional gas production nearly quadruples and LNG trade
triples by 2040.
For more information about ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy,
visit www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook.
Cautionary Statement: Statements in The Outlook and this release
relating to future events or conditions are forward-looking
statements. Actual future global or local conditions (including
economic conditions and growth, population growth, energy demand
growth and mix, energy supply sources, efficiency gains, the impact
of technology, and carbon emissions) could differ materially due to
changes in supply and demand and market conditions affecting oil,
gas, and other energy prices; changes in law or government
regulation and other political events; changes in technology; the
occurrence and duration of economic recessions; the actions of
competitors; the development of new supply sources; demographic
changes; and changes in other assumptions or factors discussed in
The Outlook and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future
Results" on the Investors page of our website at
www.exxonmobil.com. See also Item 1A of ExxonMobil's latest Form
10-K.
About ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil, the largest publicly traded international oil and
gas company, uses technology and innovation to help meet the
world’s growing energy needs. ExxonMobil holds an industry-leading
inventory of resources, is the largest refiner and marketer of
petroleum products, and its chemical company is one of the largest
in the world. Follow ExxonMobil on Twitter at
www.twitter.com/exxonmobil
ExxonMobilMedia Relations, 972-444-1107
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