Eurozone PMI Data Point to Quicker Recovery
August 23 2016 - 5:10AM
Dow Jones News
The eurozone's economic recovery gained speed in August,
according to surveys of purchasing managers that provide fresh
evidence of the currency area's resilience in the wake of the
U.K.'s decision to leave the European Union.
In advance of the British referendum in late June, economists
had feared that a vote to depart the EU could weaken business and
consumer confidence across the bloc, while reducing eurozone
exports to the U.K.
But surveys of businesses and households undertaken during the
eight weeks since the vote have registered little negative impact
on the eurozone economy, including data firm IHS Markit's monthly
questioning of 5,000 businesses operating in the manufacturing and
services sectors.
IHS Markit Wednesday said its measure of private-sector activity
based on that questioning and known as the composite Purchasing
Managers Index rose to 53.3 from in 53.2 in July. A reading below
50.0 signals a decline in activity, and a reading above that level
indicates an expansion. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street
Journal last week had estimated that the PMI fell to 53.0.
"The August flash PMI indicates that the eurozone remains on a
steady growth path in the third quarter, with no signs of the
recovery being derailed by Brexit uncertainty," said Chris
Williamson, IHS Markit's chief business economist.
The surveys suggest the recovery is likely to continue over
coming months, with service providers reporting the strongest flow
of new orders in four months, although manufacturers saw new orders
slow.
An immediate consequence of the June 23 vote has been a
depreciation of the pound's exchange rate, which raises prices of
goods made in the eurozone more for British buyers and is therefore
likely to lead to a fall in demand. Over the longer term, it is
unclear whether eurozone businesses will face tariffs when
exporting to the U.K. after it leaves the bloc.
Minutes from their July meeting recorded that ECB policy makers
believed the Brexit vote had created "new headwinds" for the
eurozone economy, but wanted to wait until the extent of the
economic disruption became clearer before deciding whether to
provide additional stimulus.
But the surveys of purchasing managers suggest the immediate
impact has been negligible, and eases pressure on policy makers to
provide additional stimulus at their September meeting.
Official figures show the eurozone economy slowed in the three
months to June, having accelerated in the first quarter. The PMI's
suggest the economy is on track to grow at a similar pace in the
third quarter, although with a greater contribution from France,
which saw output stagnate in the three months to June.
The national PMI for the eurozone's second-largest member
recorded an unexpected jump in August, rising to a 10-month high of
51.6 from 50.1 in July.
Write to Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 23, 2016 04:55 ET (08:55 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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