By Liis Kängsepp
Estonia's ruling center-right Reform Party and the main
opposition Center Party are in a close race in opinion polls ahead
of a general election on Sunday that has seen campaigns dominated
by socio-economic issues and an increased focus on national
security in response to Russia's moves in Ukraine.
A poll published by independent research company Turu-uuringute
AS this week, showed that the pro-Russian Center Party is holding a
5 percentage point lead over Prime Minister Taavi Roivas' Reform
Party. Another poll published by marketing research company TNS
Emor a week ago had the Reform Party as the front-runner with a 1
percentage point advantage over the Center Party.
The Reform Party has been in government since 1999 and seen its
support slip by around 5-6 percentage points since the last
election in 2011, largely as a result of losing votes to two new
populist parties within reach of securing enough backing for a
place in parliament for the first time.
The Reform Party is currently leading a coalition with the
Social Democrats, which together hold 52 seats in the 101-member
parliament.
Election campaigns in this nation of 1.3 million people have
touted the need for increased national security amid widespread
concerns that Moscow will attempt to destabilize the Baltic
countries, including Latvia and Lithuania, in the East-West split
that has accompanied the Ukraine crisis. Last year, the alleged
kidnapping of an Estonian security agent by Russian officers
heightened tensions between the countries, which share a 200-mile
border.
"All the parties are in consensus: security is important, we
have to invest more into both our defense force and societal
security so that we won't have any serious problems with the local
Russian minority and scenarios similar to what we saw in Ukraine
with the Donetsk People's Republic," Tonis Saarts, a political
scientist from Tallinn University, said.
Estonia, like its Baltic neighbors, regained independence from
the Soviet Union in 1991 and still has a significant ethnic Russian
minority. This minority tends to supports the Center Party, which
has a cooperation treaty with Russian President Vladimir Putin's
United Russia, while ethnic Estonians votes for other parties.
The Center Party is vying in polls for the top spot but will
struggle to form a coalition should it win the most votes. The head
of the party, Tallinn Mayor Edgar Savisaar, has riled his political
opponents who accuse him of using municipal money for election
campaigns, including a television ad featuring Mr. Savisaar as a
Superman skater wishing the people of Tallinn a merry Christmas.
Mr. Savisaar also made headlines last year when he told public
radio program Vikerraadio that the Crimea referendum, which paved
the way for Russia's annexation, was "legitimate enough to believe
in it."
The three bigger parties--the Reform Party, the Social Democrats
and the conservative-right Pro Patria and Res Publica Union
(IRL)--have said they won't participate in a government led by Mr.
Savisaar.
Mr. Savisaar didn't immediately return requests for
comments.
Other issues dominating the election run-up are taxes and wages,
including proposals to introduce a progressive income tax and raise
the minimum wage. Many Estonians are still feeling the legacy of
low wages from the Soviet days as well as cutbacks suffered during
the recession that followed the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Many
workers, especially outside the capital, are living on the edge of
poverty, and want to see higher income, Mr. Saarts said.
Opinion polls also show that two newcomers--the anti-immigration
Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) and the Estonian Free
Party--could gather the necessary 5% of votes to nab seats. The
parties have campaigned with populist slogans such as "giving the
power back to the people."
Data showed that one in every fifth person who had the right to
vote cast their ballot online, setting a record for participation
at e-elections. Estonia was the first country to introduce
nationwide legally binding voting via the Internet in 2005.
Write to Liis Kängsepp at liis.kängsepp@wsj.com