EU Stops Short of Rejecting Portugal's Spending Plan
February 05 2016 - 11:28AM
Dow Jones News
By Patricia Kowsman and Gabriele Steinhauser
The European Union's executive arm urged Portugal on Friday to
take extra measures to keep down this year's budget deficit, but
stopped short of demanding that the government submit an entirely
new spending plan.
The decision by the European Commission follows a warning it
issued last week that Portugal's draft budget wasn't in line with
the bloc's fiscal rules. Officials said earlier this week that to
bring government spending on to an acceptable path, the government
would have to produce some EUR950 million ($1.06 billion) in extra
saving.
During negotiations that lasted until late Thursday, Portuguese
officials made further concessions which the commission believes
will lead to some EUR845 million in extra savings, said Pierre
Moscovici, the EU's economic and financial affairs commissioner. He
added that the Portuguese authorities believed the extra measures
would lead to some EUR1.12 billion in savings.
"Dialogue achieved more than a rejection," Mr. Moscovici said.
"But we have to be very careful, those risks are not gone," he
added.
Although it avoided a rejection, Portugal will have to take
further steps to bring the spending plan fully in line with EU
rules. Mr. Moscovici said that the commission would take another
look the budget in May to make a final assessment. "It's still a
long hard slog," he added.
Budget troubles could hit Portugal's credibility among investors
less than two years after it exited a multibillion euro bailout
from the International Monetary Fund and the other eurozone
countries.
Canadian debt-rating agency DBRS Ltd. could be forced to
downgrade Portugal's credit rating to junk, falling in line with
the three other major ratings firms. If that happens, the European
Central Bank would no longer be able to buy Portuguese debt under
its bond-buying program, likely triggering a sharp rise in the
interest rates investors charge to hold the country's debt.
The friction between the commission and the new Socialist-led
government demonstrates the pressure that Portugal's Prime Minister
António Costa is under to implement more austerity measures, while
keeping his far-left allies in parliament happy. Mr. Costa's party
lost elections in October, but was able to forge an alliance with
three euroskeptic parties that have openly questioned Portugal's
presence in the currency union.
On Friday, Mr. Costa struck a defiant tone following a meeting
in Berlin with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "I don't want to
put Chancellor Merkel under pressure here, because surely she has
enough on her plate with her own German budget, but Portugal has a
readjustment phase behind it," he said at a joint news
conference.
Mr. Costa has vowed to reverse some austerity measures imposed
by the previous center-right government but nevertheless stick to
EU budget requirements. He has said that the Portuguese must have
more disposable income to boost economic growth and.
Under the budget plan presented last month, the government said
it would reverse salary cuts in the public sector throughout this
year and phase out a special tax on income. It also planned to cut
the value-added tax for restaurants to 13% from 23%. To make up for
the fall in revenue, it said it would increase taxes on some
products including tobacco and oil.
It estimated a structural budget deficit of 1.1% of gross
domestic product, and a growth of 2.1%, which was considered too
optimistic by a budget watchdog and credit-rating firms.
Following the commission's criticism, the government made
adjustments, mostly to increase tax revenues. The final budget plan
is expected to be presented later on Friday.
Under new powers created during the eurozone debt crisis, the
commission has the right to assess government spending plans to
check whether they are in line with the bloc's debt and deficit
rules.
So far, it has given negative opinions and demanded additional
overhauls and cuts from several countries--most recently Italy,
Spain, Austria and Lithuania--but stopped short of asking for a
full new budget.
Part of the difficulty of taking a decision on Portugal's budget
was because of the complicated nature of the eurozone's budget
rules. Its most well-known stipulations--that government deficits
can't be more than 3% of GDP and gross debt must be below 60%--are
accompanied by a host of exceptions and alternative measurements
which fiscal hawks such as Germany have blamed for creating
unnecessary loopholes.
In Portugal's case, the focus has been on its structural
deficit--a measurement that strips out the fiscal effects of a
depressed economy and is supposed to identify a country's actual
budget shortfall. But often, national governments and the
commission disagree about how much of a country's deficit is down
to the economic cycle and how much is ingrained in long-term
spending habits.
Zeke Turner contributed to this article.
Write to Gabriele Steinhauser at
gabriele.steinhauser@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 05, 2016 11:13 ET (16:13 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.