By Patricia Kowsmann and Gabriele Steinhauser
The European Union's executive arm urged Portugal to take extra
measures to keep down this year's budget deficit but stopped short
of demanding the government submit an entirely new spending
plan.
Friday's decision by the European Commission follows a warning
it issued last week that Portugal's draft budget wasn't in line
with the bloc's fiscal rules. Officials said earlier this week that
to avoid an outright rejection, the government would have to
produce some EUR950 million ($1.06 billion) in extra savings.
During negotiations that lasted until late Thursday, Portuguese
officials made some concessions, which the commission believes will
lead to some EUR845 million in extra savings, said Pierre
Moscovici, the EU's economic and financial affairs commissioner. He
said the Portuguese authorities believed the extra measures would
lead to some EUR1.12 billion in savings.
"Dialogue achieved more than a rejection," Mr. Moscovici said.
"But we have to be very careful, those risks are not gone."
To bring its spending plan fully in line with EU requirements,
Portugal will have to find ways to find several billions of extra
savings. The measures promised this week will reduce the country's
structural deficit, which strips out the impact of the weak
economy, by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point, whereas the commission
wants a reduction of 0.6 percentage point, Mr. Moscovici said.
The commission will take another look at the budget in May to
make a final assessment, he said, adding, "It's still a long, hard
slog."
Portugal's finance ministry called the European Commission's
decision a sign of confidence in the country, adding that
authorities in Lisbon were able "to safeguard the national right to
make political choices." It pledged to stick to its strategy of
increasing increase indirect taxes and cutting spending that isn't
associated with social welfare while lowering taxes on income and
raising salaries in the public sector.
Budget troubles could hurt Portugal's credibility among
investors less than two years after it exited a multibillion-euro
bailout from the International Monetary Fund and the other eurozone
countries.
Canadian debt-rating agency DBRS Ltd. could be forced to
downgrade Portugal's credit rating to junk, falling in line with
the three other major ratings firms. If that happens, the European
Central Bank no longer would be able to buy Portuguese debt under
its bond-buying program, likely triggering a sharp rise in the
interest rates investors charge to hold the country's debt.
The friction between the commission and the new Socialist-led
government highlights the dilemma faced by Portuguese Prime
Minister António Costa, who is under pressure from Brussels and
other eurozone capitals to implement more austerity measures but
also to keep his far-left allies in parliament happy. Mr. Costa's
party lost elections in October but was able to forge an alliance
with three euroskeptic parties that have questioned Portugal's
presence in the currency union.
Earlier Friday, Mr. Costa struck a defiant tone following a
meeting in Berlin with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "I don't
want to put Chancellor Merkel under pressure here, because surely
she has enough on her plate with her own German budget, but
Portugal has a readjustment phase behind it," he said at a joint
news conference.
Mr. Costa has vowed to reverse some austerity measures imposed
by the previous center-right government but nevertheless stick to
EU budget requirements. He has said the Portuguese must have more
disposable income to boost economic growth.
Under the budget plan presented last month, the government said
it would reverse salary cuts in the public sector throughout this
year and phase out a special tax on income. It also planned to cut
the value-added tax for restaurants to 13% from 23%. To make up for
the fall in revenue, it said it would increase taxes on some
products including tobacco and oil.
It estimated a structural budget deficit of 1.1% of gross
domestic product, and a growth of 2.1%, which was considered too
optimistic by a budget watchdog and credit-rating firms, as well as
the commission.
Following the commission's criticism, the government made
adjustments. It decided to increase taxes on oil products further,
impose a new tax on banks worth EUR50 million, cut the number of
public employees and tighten control over sick leave. It also is
dropping a EUR135 million plan to lower the contribution paid by
workers making less than EUR600 a month.
The government revised its growth estimate to 1.8%. The deficit
forecast, meanwhile, was lowered to 2.2% from a previous estimate
of 2.6%.
The standoff underlines the limitations of exerting control over
spending policies in countries that aren't under a bailout program.
Under new powers created during the eurozone debt crisis, the
commission has the right to assess government spending plans to
check whether they are in line with the bloc's debt and deficit
rules.
So far, it has given negative opinions and demanded additional
overhauls and cuts from several countries--most recently Italy,
Spain, Austria and Lithuania--but stopped short of asking for a
full new budget.
Part of the difficulty of making a decision on Portugal's budget
was due to the complicated nature of the eurozone's budget rules.
Its most well-known stipulations--that government deficits can't be
more than 3% of GDP and gross debt must be below 60%--are
accompanied by a host of exceptions and alternative measurements
that fiscal hawks such as Germany have blamed for creating
unnecessary loopholes.
In Portugal's case, the focus has been on its structural
deficit--a measurement that strips out the fiscal effects of a
depressed economy and is supposed to identify a country's actual
budget shortfall. But often, national governments and the
commission disagree about how much of a country's deficit is down
to the economic cycle and how much is ingrained in long-term
spending habits.
Zeke Turner contributed to this article.
Write to Gabriele Steinhauser at
gabriele.steinhauser@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 05, 2016 13:58 ET (18:58 GMT)
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