EU Raises Poland, Hungary Growth Forecasts
May 03 2016 - 5:30AM
Dow Jones News
By Martin M. Sobczyk and Margit Feher
The European Commission said Tuesday that both the Polish and
Hungarian economies will grow faster than previously expected due
to rising domestic demand.
Poland's "private consumption should benefit from a fiscal
stimulus and the dynamic labor market while price pressures are set
to remain subdued," it said.
It raised its growth forecast for the country to 3.7% in 2016
and 3.6% in 2017 from 3.5% it expected for both years in the
previous forecast.
Since April, the Polish government has been paying a new
childcare benefit that is expected to boost disposable income and
improve consumer confidence. It is also expected to add to Poland's
fiscal deficit, widening to 3.1% of GDP in 2017 from 2.6% of GDP
expected this year. The childcare benefit is estimated to cost some
0.9% of gross domestic product, the commission said.
It named the ongoing constitutional crisis in Poland as a risk
to its growth forecast. The implementation of some policy decisions
considered by the government, such as a proposed lower retirement
age and a conversion of foreign-currency loans into the zloty at
the expense of banks, could also weigh on economic activity, it
said.
The commission raised Tuesday its GDP growth forecast for
Hungary this year to 2.5%, from 2.1% earlier, and to 2.8% for 2017,
from 2.5% earlier.
Real disposable income and household spending should benefit
from a Jan. 1, 2016 cut in personal income taxes, the conversion of
foreign-currency mortgages into the local currency and government
measures to boost the housing market, it added. The housing
promotion scheme is to provide an impulse to the housing market and
is expected to take full effect in 2017, it said.
While noting that "the open-ended nature of the new housing
scheme is a source of budgetary uncertainty," the commission also
considerably raised its forecast for a rise in public consumption
this year--to 2.4% from 0.2%.
The Hungarian government didn't release its 2017 budget draft
before the commission's cut-off date for the spring forecast, but
the commission said it expects the budget deficit to remain stable
at around 2.0% of GDP in 2017.
The government intends to loosen the budget next year, before
the 2018 parliamentary elections, targeting the 2017 budget deficit
at 2.4% of GDP.
The commission noted that the government's "considerable
budgetary breathing space" expected for this year and next will
likely be used up by the substantial tax cuts and
expenditure-increasing measures--including the new housing scheme,
additional infrastructure investments and spending on state
education.
Write to Martin M. Sobczyk at martin.sobczyk@wsj.com and Margit
Feher at margit.feher@wsj.com; Twitter: @margitfeher
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 03, 2016 05:15 ET (09:15 GMT)
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