By Tom Fairless
FRANKFURT--The European Central Bank at a policy meeting on
Thursday is expected to leave its EUR1.8 trillion ($2 trillion)
stimulus package unchanged and to hike its inflation forecasts for
the first time in a year, in a nod to higher oil prices.
But nearly 18 months into its massive bond-purchase program,
data published on Tuesday showed that the ECB is still far from
hitting its inflation goal of around 2%.
Eurozone consumer prices fell by 0.1% in May from a year
earlier, the European Union's statistics agency said, the second
straight month of deflation in the currency area. While economists
expect prices to start rising in the coming months due to a rebound
in oil prices, they are divided on whether the ECB will need to
boost its bond-purchase program again to hit its target.
ECB officials have urged investors to be patient and wait for
the full impact of their latest policy measures to unfold. Some
steps have yet to be implemented.
"There's a pretty broad consensus among investors that the ECB
is done for the time being, and now it is just wait and see," said
Martin Lueck, chief German investment strategist at BlackRock,
Inc., which manages assets worth $4.7 trillion.
At ECB President Mario Draghi's news conference on Thursday, he
is likely to tread a careful line, emphasizing the bank's
willingness to take further action if inflation doesn't pick up
decisively, while stressing the need for patience, analysts
predicted.
The ECB has launched a series of stimulus packages since
mid-2014 with the aim of lifting ultralow inflation. The most
recent package came in March. Policymakers hope that by buying
mainly government bonds, the ECB will drive down interest rates
across the economy and stimulate growth.
However, inflation has hovered close to zero for the past two
years. Worryingly, core inflation, which excludes volatile energy
and food prices, rose only slightly in May, to 0.8% from 0.7% the
previous month.
"The ECB will remain extremely vigilant to any shocks that could
help push the euro area into outright deflation," said Marchel
Alexandrovich, an economist with Jefferies in London.
Other recent data have been more positive. The eurozone's
economy expanded by 0.5% in the first three months of the year,
compared with the previous quarter, exceeding the growth rate in
both the U.S. and the U.K. Bank lending to businesses hit a fresh
four-year high in April, and the region's unemployment rate, at
10.2%, is near a five-year low, according to data published on
Tuesday--though still twice the level in the U.S.
Taken together, Tuesday's data "go in the right direction," and
"speak against further loosening of monetary policy," said Claudia
Broyer, an economist at Allianz SE in Frankfurt.
Several major ECB policy measures will only take effect in June,
including its first purchases of corporate bonds and a series of
cheap four-year loans for banks, under which banks could be paid to
borrow. Both policies are directly aimed at reducing the cost of
loans for businesses and consumers, and thereby stoking growth. Mr.
Draghi may unveil fresh details on Thursday of the corporate-bond
purchases, which target a market worth around EUR800 billion,
analysts said.
Inflation may receive an additional boost if the U.S. Federal
Reserve raises its short-term interest rates over coming months, as
some senior Fed officials have indicated it might, since that would
likely weaken the euro and raise prices of imported goods and
services.
Either way, a rebound in oil prices is likely to drive inflation
toward 1% by year-end, economists said.
"The past two-and-a-half years must have been extremely
frustrating for the ECB because whenever they took action, oil
prices would drop some more and destroy the effects of its stimulus
on inflation expectations," Mr. Lueck said. "Now they may be hoping
that they will finally see the fruits of their labor."
The ECB's quarterly staff projections, due to be published on
Thursday, will be key, analysts said. If higher oil prices fail to
raise inflation forecasts for 2017 and 2018, that "probably means
the ECB doesn't consider the instruments it has been using so far
have been sufficiently effective," said Mr. Lueck. In its March
forecasts, the ECB predicted that inflation would reach 1.3% next
year and 1.6% in 2018, still considerably below its target.
ECB officials have indicated that any fresh action would likely
focus on bond purchases, currently running at EUR80 billion per
month, rather than interest rates. Banks and insurance companies
complain that the ECB's negative interest rates are undermining
their profits.
The ECB has boosted its balance sheet above EUR3 trillion in
recent weeks as a result of its bond purchases, but it remains
smaller than it was in mid-2012, at the height of the region's debt
crisis.
Some economists say that isn't good enough.
"It is quite disappointing that 18 months after the ECB decided
to embark on quantitative easing, the ECB balance sheet continues
to be below the level reached in 2012," said Athanasios Orphanides,
a member of the ECB's governing council between 2008 and 2012, and
now an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology.
"This is indicative of reluctance to ease policy as
necessary."
Paul Hannon and Todd Buell contributed to this article.
Write to Tom Fairless at tom.fairless@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 31, 2016 12:22 ET (16:22 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.