Downed Jet Disrupts Russia and Turkey Wheat Trade
November 27 2015 - 1:50PM
Dow Jones News
LONDON—Tensions following Turkey's shooting down of a Russian
jet are disrupting the Black Sea wheat trade, one of the world's
biggest grain routes, in a spat that could push prices higher as
some customers look for alternative supplies.
Some firms are deferring new deals to ship wheat from Russia to
Turkey, citing fears Moscow may impose an export ban. Any
disruption would come as a boon to the beleaguered grain industry
in the U.S. and elsewhere in Europe, as those regions step in and
tap the millions of tons of grain piling up in silos around the
world.
No formal Russian ban on grain exports has been announced, but
buyers have talked of delays getting customs' authorization for
shipments to Turkey in the wake of the downed plane. After
permitting ships to leave with grain cargoes Thursday, Russian
authorities began suspending exports to Turkey on Friday, said one
broker, who declined to be named.
On Tuesday, a Turkish jet fighter shot down a Russian bomber
along the Syrian border, marking the first time a North Atlantic
Treaty Organization member downed a Russian warplane since 1952.
That led Russia to announce plans Thursday to impose sanctions
against Turkey.
Wheat represents one of the main items traded between the
nations, with Turkey the no. 1 destination for Russian wheat last
year. Russia is the world's third-largest wheat exporter and,
alongside Egypt, Turkey is its biggest customer. Turkey bought
around 4.1 million metric tons of Russian wheat in the 2014-15
marketing year.
Last year, fears that Russia's involvement in a separatist war
in Ukraine would hit the two countries' exports helped push up the
price of wheat by nearly 25% over three months.
The market hasn't reacted to the current crisis yet, but a price
spike is expected if the situation between the two countries
worsens.
"If there is an escalation, I would expect that to give support
to prices," said Daryna Kovalska, an analyst at Macquarie.
The muted market reaction, so far, is an indicator of the size
of global wheat reserves, which gives the market a large cushion
against disruption.
After three consecutive big harvests, this marketing year will
end with stocks of about 209 million tons of wheat stockpiled,
according to the International Grains Council. European wheat
prices are down 12% this year.
Cheap grain from Russia and Ukraine also has hurt farmers in
Europe and the U.S., with silos filling across major producers,
such as France, as they struggle to shift their harvest.
Additional demand from Turkey, then, could comfortably be met by
Russia's rivals, Ms. Kovalska said.
But if the supply of Russian wheat is cut off, there would be at
least a short-term spike in prices, as Turkey's millers scramble to
secure new supplies at short notice. It also would bolster sellers'
bargaining power.
On Friday, Erol Yahya, executive director of Turkish milling
group Intermil-Un, said his company had suspended new purchases of
Russian wheat until the situation becomes clear. Intermil would
have pay $30 to $40 more per metric ton for wheat from Canada,
Australia or the U.S. if it were cut off from Russian supplies, he
said.
European wheat futures for March delivery were trading around
€183 per ton Friday.
Likewise, Russian trade houses have stopped striking new deals
with Turkish buyers, fearing an export ban would leave their
vessels stuck in port accruing fines, said Andrey Sizov, managing
director of Russian agriculture consultancy SovEcon.
Many in the industry are hoping a long-term export ban won't
happen, citing the countries' mutual dependence in trade. They hope
the two governments will permit trade to continue quietly even as
they spar in public.
Turkey was the no. 1 destination for Russian wheat, corn,
sunflower oil, and sunflower meal in 2014-15, accounting for
exports valued at about $1.5 billion, according to SovEcon's data.
Meanwhile, Russia's boycott of some EU products has left it reliant
on imports of fruit and vegetables from Turkey.
Write to Ed Ballard at ed.ballard@wsj.com
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 27, 2015 13:35 ET (18:35 GMT)
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