BOND REPORT: U.S. Treasurys Hold Steady, But A First For Japan's 10-year Bonds
February 09 2016 - 3:53PM
Dow Jones News
By Anora Mahmudova, MarketWatch
10-year U.S. Treasury yields at 1.728%
Long-dated Japanese bond prices rose on Tuesday, pushing the
yield on the country's benchmark 10-year bond into negative
territory for the first time ever.
U.S. Treasury yields, meanwhile, were little changed after
falling sharply in early Asia trade.
Japan's 10-year bond is yielding a negative 0.027% after falling
5 basis points on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened
against the dollar
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-yen-has-crossed-a-critical-line-in-the-sand-2016-02-09),
which tumbled to below Yen115 for the first time November 2014.
The fall in the dollar against the yen has more to do with the
diminishing prospects of any future rate hikes in the U.S. rather
than Japan's monetary policy, according to Peter Boockvar, chief
market analyst at The Lindsey Group LLC.
"The dollar has strengthened a lot over the past year in an
anticipation of rate hikes this year, but it looks increasingly
unlikely that the Fed will do that given how weak our economy is,"
Boockvar said.
"The higher probability of not seeing another 25 basis-point
rate hike in the U.S. had more impact than the 10 basis-point cut
in deposit rates in Japan last week," Boockvar said.
The Bank of Japan last week cut its bank deposit rates to
negative 0.1% with strategist suggesting that the move was intended
to weaken the currency and stimulate the economy.
Read:Five questions Janet Yellen must answer
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-questions-janet-yellen-must-answer-2016-02-09)
Japanese bond yields began falling sharply last week, but the
currency has strengthened instead, creating further headache for
policy makers.
Treasury yields fell sharply in early Asia trade but recovered
by the U.S. day, leaving yields little changed.
"The severity of the recent moves have extended oversold
conditions in stocks and overbought condition in Treasurys,
creating a dynamic which points to the need for a meaningful
correction," wrote David Ader, head of government bond strategy at
CRT Capital, referring to multiday rally in Treasurys.
On Tuesday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note -- the
Treasury market's benchmark -- declined less than a basis point to
1.728%, after posting the largest one-day decline since July 6 on
Monday. Treasury yields have dropped more than 50 basis points
since the start of the year to the lowest level since Feb 2,
2015.
Boockvar said 10-year yields could fall further and that the
1.38% level should be watched carefully, as it was the lowest level
for Treasury yields on intraday basis, set in 2012.
"We will need to see some stabilization in oil prices and a
pickup in inflation for 10-year yields to stop falling," he
added.
Read:Oil industry woes grow as storage levels hit 'critical
level'
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-industry-woes-grow-as-storage-levels-hit-critical-level-2016-02-08)
The yield on the 30-year bond , known as the long bond, rose 2
basis points to 2.571% from 2.559% on Monday. The yield on the
two-year note rose 3.2 basis points to 0.694% from 0.662% on
Monday.
In Europe, the benchmark 10-year German yield rose 1.8 basis
points to 0.234% from 0.216% on Monday.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 09, 2016 15:38 ET (20:38 GMT)
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