BOND REPORT: Treasury Yields Tumble To 3-week Low On Falling Oil Prices, Europe Bank Woes
September 27 2016 - 1:06PM
Dow Jones News
By Ellie Ismailidou, MarketWatch
Treasury prices gained Tuesday, driving yields to their lowest
level in three weeks, as falling oil prices and growing concerns
about stress in European banks fueled demand for U.S. government
debt.
Oil prices on Tuesday dropped sharply after Iran and Saudi
Arabia poured cold water
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-lower-after-iran-douses-hopes-for-production-deal-2016-09-27)on
hopes for a production-cap deal at the oil producers' meeting this
week. Tumbling oil prices weigh on inflation expectations, which in
turn are a big component of long-term yields.
Meanwhile, global appetite for investments perceived as safe was
in part fueled by worries over German bank Deutsche Bank AG
(DBK.XE) which extended losses from Monday when a report said
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has ruled out state aid for the
bank. Frankfurt-listed shares of Deutsche Bank (DBK.XE) have
dropped more than 50% in 2016.
Deutsche Bank shares saw a brief pop
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deutsche-bank-shares-turn-positive-after-justice-department-comments-2016-09-27)
into positive territory Tuesday after a U.S. Justice Department
official indicated that banks that cooperate with authorities in
settling claims related to dealings in mortgage-related securities
would see smaller fines. But the rebound soon faded.
Treasury yields somewhat rebounded after a report showed
Americans in September expressed the most optimism about the
economy since the summer of 2007
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumers-the-most-confident-since-2007-2016-09-27),
reflecting a sunnier view about the U.S. labor market.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note lost 2.9 basis
points to 1.560%, its lowest level since Sept. 7. Treasury yields
fall when prices rise and vice versa. One basis point is equal to
one-hundredth of a percentage point.
The yield on the two-year Treasury note , which is most
sensitive to rate changes, fell 1.3 basis points to 0.746%. And the
yield on the 30-year Treasury bond , which is the most sensitive to
long-term growth and inflation expectations, slid 4.4 basis points
to 2.284%, also marking a nearly three-week low.
In Europe, the yield on Germany's 10-year bond known as the
bund, lost 3.7 basis points to negative 0.146%, approaching an
all-time low, according to Tradeweb.
The tumbling-yield trend on Tuesday reflected growing risk
aversion and speculation that potential stress in European
financial companies might pose a systemic risk to markets and even
keep the Federal Reserve from hiking U.S. interest rates by end of
year, said Aaron Kohli, interest-rate strategist at BMO Capital
Markets, in an interview.
Read: How Deutsche Bank woes are stressing out the U.S. stock
market
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-deutsche-bank-woes-are-stressing-out-the-us-stock-market-2016-09-26)
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-deutsche-bank-woes-are-stressing-out-the-us-stock-market-2016-09-26)Meanwhile,
steep drops in oil prices boosted the appeal of long-term
government debt, according to Kohli, as they boosted so-called real
yields, which are the nominal Treasury yields minus the inflation
expectations.
At the same time, on the U.S. economic front, some analysts
cautioned against cheering the rise in consumer confidence.
"The rise in the present-situation index appears to reflect an
improvement in labor-market conditions. The net proportion of
respondents saying that jobs were plentiful rather than hard to get
improved to a nine-year high," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S.
economist at Capital Economics, in an email.
"But that doesn't necessarily mean that faster wage growth is
coming soon. The net proportion expecting incomes to improve in the
next six months actually fell to. [the lowest] reading on net
incomes since late 2013," Ashworth added.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 27, 2016 12:51 ET (16:51 GMT)
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