BOND REPORT: Treasury Yields Fall After November Jobs Report
December 02 2016 - 2:33PM
Dow Jones News
By Joseph Adinolfi, MarketWatch
Treasury prices rose on Friday, sending yields lower, after a
lackluster reading on average hourly wage growth helped subdue
fears about rising inflation.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 2.4 basis points to
2.429%, while the two-year yield shed 1.9 basis point to 1.132%.
The 30-year yield declined 3.1 basis points to 3.078%. Bond prices
and yields move in opposite directions.
President-elect Donald Trump's unexpected electoral victory
sparked a global bond-market rout that looks set to continue for a
fourth straight week--though the pace of declines has slowed
somewhat. Investors expect that, should they become law, Trump's
fiscal policies, which include tax cuts, infrastructure spending,
and higher tariffs, would stoke higher inflation.
The Labor Department's November jobs report, released Friday,
showed the U.S. labor market is at, or near, full employment.
Because the pool of available labor is shrinking, a massive
infrastructure-spending bill would force contractors to offer
higher pay to attract workers, forcing companies to pass those
costs on to consumers in the form of higher prices, said Mike
Materasso, senior vice president at Franklin Templeton.
The U.S. jobless rate hit a nine-year low of 4.6% in November as
the economy added 178,000 jobs, according to the data. Average
hourly wages slipped 0.1% last month, well below expectations.
Though earnings are up 2.5% for the year.
By stoking inflation and growth, expanded fiscal stimulus could
potentially allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more
quickly, which would also put pressure on Treasurys as investors
demand higher yields to account for higher baseline interest
rates.
"The big concern here is that you have a full employment economy
and we have been seeing wage pressures rising. so as the
unemployment rate continues to drop that will put additional
pressure on wages, and in turn, inflation," Materasso said.
Economic data have been relatively robust in recent weeks. The
U.S. economy expanded at an annualized pace of 3.2% in the third
quarter, its strongest reading in more than two years
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-rises-at-32-annual-pace-strongest-in-more-than-two-years-2016-11-29).
Adding to those perceptions of a strengthening economy, the
Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index, rose to 53.2%
last month from 51.9% in October
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/factory-activity-improved-in-november-ism-data-show-2016-12-01),
marking its highest level in five months. Meanwhile, jobless claims
rose by 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 268,000 in Nov. 26 week,
but remain at multidecade lows
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-rise-17000-to-268000-2016-12-01),
offering persistent signs of health in the labor market.
This, combined with comments from a bevy of Federal Reserve
officials suggesting that the central bank would soon raise
interest rates again, have pushed market-based expectations for a
December rate hike to around 100%.
While investors see a December hike as a foregone conclusion,
they will scrutinize the Fed's upcoming policy statement and
revised interest-rate projections for clues as to whether the
central bank is planning to raise rates more quickly than
previously thought in 2017, Materasso said.
"The question is: Will the [Fed] statement be more hawkish than
usual, and where will the dots lie?" Materasso said, referring to
the dot plot, a summary of Fed policy makers' projections for the
pace of rate hikes.
The Fed's next two-day policy meeting begins on Dec. 13.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 02, 2016 14:18 ET (19:18 GMT)
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