By Prabha Natarajan
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The Federal Reserve's usual purchase of agency debt securities on Friday will take on extra importance this week as investors and analysts look for direction after the central bank's announcement that it would pare down its acquisitions to $175 billion.
"Investors will be watching to see if a lot [of securities are] sold, and what is the percentage the Fed takes," said Mark Noble, head of agency trading at MF Global.
"So long the thinking has been hold on to your bonds, the Fed's program has a while to go. But if more people are selling, then there is a sense that we are nearing tail end."
In a surprise move, the Federal Open Market Committee decided that it would shrink the size of the agency debt program to $175 billion from the projected maximum of $200 billion. So far, the central bank has bought nearly $147 billion of these securities.
"The amount of agency debt purchases, while somewhat less than the previously announced maximum of $200 billion, is consistent with the recent path of purchases and reflects the limited availability of agency debt," the committee noted in a statement.
The Fed's statement reflects the changed reality of the agency debt market. Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and the Federal Home Loan Banks system (FHLBs) typically tap the bullet issue market on a regular basis, offering debt securities with maturities varying between 2 years to 30 years. Last fall, even after the Fed's takeover of the two mortgage giants, investors were demanding high risk premiums on these bonds, making it expensive for the companies to raise money. In a bid to calm investor fears and offer steady back-up, the Fed started buying these securities in December. For instance, risk premiums on Fannie's three-year notes was around 168 basis points, whereas they are at 20 basis points now, nearly a year later.
There's a growing belief that things have improved so much that there's not as much need for Fed support as before, said Margaret Kerins, head of agency debt at RBS.
Further, the three government-sponsored enterprises also find that they don't need to issue as much of these benchmark securities as they did previously. The mortgage giants would use the debt to fund their purchase of mortgage-backed securities that were held on their investment portfolios. Since the Fed's purchase of these bonds, the duo have sharply decreased these purchases and hence, have little need to issue fresh debt, except to fund runoffs and keep open a financing alternative. In the past four months, the GSEs have issued only about $11 billion, according to FTN Financial.
Also, they have seen a sharp rise in other sources of agency funding - such as discount and medium term notes. have turned robust as investors have found value in them again.
"If spreads on agency bullets begin to widen, they [GSEs] have more than adequate capacity to manage higher bullet costs by switching back to more discount note issuance, particularly given the newly reduced Treasury bill supply," noted Jim Vogel, a strategist with FTN Financial.
As a reflection of this altered circumstance, after the initial knee-jerk widening on Wednesday, risk premiums on agency debt securities have backed down to tighter levels.
But the one puzzling factor that folks are still trying to figure out is why the Fed hurried to announce this decision.
"It's strange that the Fed gave away an option like this so early, five months early," MF Global's Noble said. "They always said it would be up to $200 billion, so it would have been fine if they stopped short of it."
-By Prabha Natarajan, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2468; prabha.natarajan@dowjones.com
-0-