Adobe Data Shows 76 Percent of Online Holiday Sales Will be Spent on 1 Percent of Product SKUs
October 29 2015 - 12:01AM
Business Wire
Record Online Sales of $83 Billion Expected this Holiday
Season; Online Prices Expected to be Lowest on Thanksgiving
Day
Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) today released its 2015 Digital Index Online
Shopping Prediction for the upcoming holiday season. Adobe
forecasts that total online sales will reach $83 billion, an
increase of eleven percent year-over-year (YoY). Seventy-six
percent of sales will be devoted to just one percent of product
SKUs – primarily electronics (60 percent) and gift cards (ten
percent). Thanksgiving Day will be the fastest growing online sales
day for the second consecutive year, with an 18 percent increase
YoY and $1.6 billion in sales. Cyber Monday will hit the $3 billion
mark for the first time and see twelve percent growth YoY, while
Black Friday is expected to increase 15 percent YoY to generate
$2.7 billion. The most talked about gift items likely to fill
shopping carts include the Star Wars BB-8 droid toy, the Apple
Watch, Sony’s PlayStation 4, Minecraft and Halo 5 video games,
among others.
Adobe’s predictive commerce model also projects that shoppers
will find the lowest overall online prices of the season on
Thanksgiving Day, with an average discount of 26 percent, but
out-of-stock incidents will also increase by 83 percent that day.
The best time to buy based on price and product availability will
vary by product category. Saturday before Thanksgiving (Nov. 21)
will offer the largest, single-day price drop for toys, with an
average discount of 18 percent. The best deals for electronics (18
percent discount on average) will be offered on the Monday before
Thanksgiving (Nov. 23). For jewelry, discounts will peak at 25
percent on Thanksgiving Day, while apparel items will be discounted
throughout the season.
Adobe’s Online Shopping Prediction is the most comprehensive
report in the industry. The forecast is based on an analysis of 55
million product SKUs and aggregated and anonymous data of more than
one trillion visits to 4,500 retail websites over the last seven
years. Seven dollars and fifty cents out of every ten dollars spent
online with the top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Marketing
Cloud.* Adobe has insights into 80 percent of all transactions from
the top 100 retailers in the U.S.* The breadth of data Adobe
collects has allowed the company to successfully predict consumer
online spending on Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday within two percent
in previous years, the most accurate forecast in the industry.
“Holiday shopping is a huge investment, and consumers get more
sophisticated every year with their online and mobile shopping in
order to secure the most popular gifts at the best prices,” said
Tamara Gaffney, principal research analyst, Adobe Digital Index.
“The average U.S. Internet user will spend a total of $305 online
in November and December, with an average of $11 on Cyber Monday,
which will set the record for largest online shopping day of all
time. Both months combined will drive more than 22 percent of the
total annual online sales for U.S. retailers.”
Additional findings include:
- Best Deals: Online prices are
expected to be lowest on Thanksgiving Day with an average discount
of 26 percent. However, out-of-stock incidents are likely to
increase 83 percent on Thanksgiving Day and peak on Cyber Monday
due to increased demand. Consumers will find the most discounts
primarily through display advertising followed by social networks,
with search engines being least likely to result in a discount of
more than ten percent. Shipping costs will be lowest on
Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday with an average of $1.30.
- Mobile and Social Media Impact:
For the first time, mobile devices will overtake desktops on
Thanksgiving Day to drive the majority (51 percent) of online
shopping visits – representing 29 percent of online sales that day,
a 12 percent increase YoY. Apple iOS will represent 22 percent of
sales versus Android’s seven percent. Consistent with last year,
Adobe data also shows that two percent of sales will be directly
impacted by social networks. As of Q3 2015, referred
revenue-per-visit (RPV) from social networks was led by Facebook
($1.24) and Pinterest ($0.74), followed by Twitter ($0.60) and
Reddit ($0.57).
- Hot Gifts & Social Buzz:
Social media buzz is typically an early indicator for top holiday
gifts. Star Wars’ BB-8 droid is leading social media buzz for kids’
toys, followed by Barbie and American Girl dolls. Apple leads the
wearable, streaming hardware and tablet categories with Apple
Watch, Apple TV and iPad. GoPro, Fitbit, Roku, Chromecast, Amazon
Kindle and iPad Mini are the runner-ups in each category. Sony’s
PlayStation 4 is the most talked about game console, while
Minecraft and Halo 5 are even in driving buzz for the top video
game.
- Top Online Retailers: Amazon
reigns supreme followed by eBay and Target, while Walmart beats the
Gap when it comes to retailers driving the most social media
conversations since Sept. 1. Fifteen percent of Amazon’s social
buzz originates in California while 35 percent of eBay mentions
come from New York. For the second consecutive year, both
California and New York are the states leading social chatter for
Target.
Helpful Links
- Adobe Digital Index 2015 Online
Shopping Prediction (Full Report)
- CMO.com Article (Research Data)
- CMO.com Article (Survey Data)
- Media Alert: Adobe Announces Strong
Momentum with Retailers; Introduces New Product Innovations to
Advance Industry
- Adobe Digital Marketing Blog
- Twitter
- Facebook
About Adobe Digital Index
Adobe Digital Index publishes research on digital marketing and
other topics of interest to senior marketing and e-commerce
executives across industries. Research is based on the analysis of
select, anonymous and aggregated data from over 4,500 major
companies worldwide that use Adobe Marketing Cloud to obtain
actionable data and analysis of activity on their websites. The
2015 Online Shopping Forecast’s margin of error is three percent
with a 90 percent confidence level.
About Adobe
Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. For
more information, visit www.adobe.com.
* Internet Retailer’s 2015 Top 500 eGuide, an independent source
that measures online commerce technologies
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All rights reserved. Adobe
and the Adobe logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks
of Adobe Systems Incorporated in the United States and/or other
countries. All other trademarks are the property of their
respective owners.
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AdobeStefan Offermann, 408-536-4023sofferma@adobe.comCraig
Corica, 415-832-5389ccorica@adobe.com
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