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By Quentin Fottrell
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
DUBLIN -(Dow Jones)- Ryanair Holdings PLC (RYAAY) Monday said second-quarter net profit rose 34.8% on substantially lower fuel prices, but it expects to make a material loss during the second half as winter yields fall 20%.
The airline maintained its full-year guidance for net profit at the lower end of a range of EUR200 million to EUR300 million.
For the three months to Sept 30, Ireland's largest budget airline posted net profit of EUR250.5 million, up from EUR185.8 million for the same period last year. Unit costs excluding fuel fell by 5%; including fuel, they fell 27%.
"These results are heavily distorted by a 42% fall in fuel costs, which has masked a significant 17% decline in average fares," said Chief Executive Michael O'Leary.
He said Ryanair has made little progress in its discussions with Boeing Co (BA) for an order of 200 aircraft for delivery between 2013 and 2016.
If discussions are not completed before year-end, Ryanair will end its relationship with Boeing and confirm a series of order deferrals and cancellations. "If we cannot invest our surplus cash efficiently in new aircraft, then we should distribute it to shareholders," O'Leary said.
Deputy Chief Executive and Chief Operating Officer Michael Cawley told Dow Jones Newswires no decision had been made on whether there would be a dividend payout or share buyback, although he said a dividend is an "inefficient" way of returning value to shareholders.
Ryanair has over EUR2.5 billion in cash.
Cawley said Ryanair will continue with the current leased/owned ratio of the fleet.
Analysts say this is the critical quarter in Ryanair's financial year during which over 80% of its full year profits are generated.
O'Leary said ancillary revenues grew by 8% to EUR346.3 million in the first half, accounting for almost 20% of revenues. Ancillary revenues per passenger have plateaued out, Cawley added.
Ryanair also posted a 1% fall in second quarter revenue to EUR992 million versus EUR1.03 billion and diluted earnings per share of 16.90 cents versus 12.55 cents.
"Market conditions in Ireland, the U.K. and Europe continue to be difficult, characterized by an absence of consumer confidence," he said, citing Ireland's EUR10 per passenger travel tax.
Recent weeks have seen the demise of rival airlines SkyEurope and Seagle Air in Slovakia, as well as MyAir in Italy, and Ryanair said it expects further companies to go under this winter.
COO Cawley said Christmas bookings are looking "very good", helped by lower fares. Reductions in traffic by flag carriers in Italy and the U.K. have also helped bookings, he added.
He said Ryanair will open one more base before Christmas and another three to four bases to its existing 36 bases. Cawley wouldn't say if the focus would remain in Spain/Italy or move to Germany/Scandanavia.
He added that weaker sterling reduces fares, but also costs; about 28% of Ryanair's business is in sterling.
At Friday's close, Ryanair stock was down 1% at EUR2.95 in Dublin in a weak overall market, up slightly from EUR2.50 this time last year.
Ryanair has hedged 90% of its fuel requirements until end-March at $60.5/barrel in the third quarter and $62/barrel in the fourth quarter, and has hedged 50% of the first quarter of 2011 at $66/barrel and 50% of the second quarter of 2011 at $74/barrel.
Company Web site: http://www.ryanair.com
-By Quentin Fottrell, Dow Jones Newswires; +353-1-676-2189; quentin.fottrell@dowjones.com