NEW YORK, April 21, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The recent
reductions in oil price appear to be long-term trends, which will
reduce the drive for flight efficiency. However, fuel cost is still
the single most significant operating cost for airlines and will
effect all modernization decisions. Despite an improving economic
environment, the heady days of the mid-2000s for business aircraft
will not return. Defense budgets globally are under pressure, and
the military aircraft market reflects that pressure. Market entry
barriers will remain high due to the costs involved, but the market
for small satellite launches will be the most competitive. There
are purchases by countries all over the world but the market in
2025 will be dominated by new sensor packages, not new
platforms.
Top Trends for 2025
1 The recent reductions in oil price appears to be long-term
trends, which will reduce the drive for flight efficiency. However,
fuel cost is still the single most significant operating cost for
airlines and will effect all modernization decisions. A slowdown in
replacement purchases will be the near-term effect, but the
long-term need to update aircraft will drive purchases.
2 Despite an improving economic environment, the heady days of
the mid-2000s for business aircraft will not return. Wealth was
being artificially created and prompted a climate of entitlement
that resulted in an aircraft market that appealed to the newly
rich. That climate will not return.
3 Defense budgets are under global pressure. Even the much
touted Chinese budget growth is fairly modest. The global military
aircraft market reflects that pressure. Recent production programs
have been costly, delayed, and have not recovered its development
costs. Newer programs may be in even worse shape.
4 Market entry barriers will remain high due to the costs
involved, but the market for small satellite launches will be the
most competitive. The overall space market is poised to grow
steadily, but growth will be subdued because the transition to a
more competitive commercialized market, which will drive prices
down.
5 While they were not included in the sizing on the previous
page, unmanned aerial vehicles have been a hot topic for the past
several years. There are purchases by countries all over the world,
but the market in 2025 will be dominated by new sensor packages and
not by new platforms.
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