Brexit' Gives EU Airlines Bumpy Ride -- Update
June 24 2016 - 4:19PM
Dow Jones News
By Robert Wall
LONDON -- European airlines were among the hardest hit by the
market turbulence Friday, following the startling decision by
Britons to leave the European Union.
Airline stocks fell sharply on concerns a weaker British
currency and possible slowdown in the wider European economy would
curtail demand for air travel. The result of the vote also puts
into doubt international agreements governing air traffic rights to
and from the U.K.
While much hinges on the broader economic fallout, the effect on
business quickly became clear. International Consolidated Airlines
Group SA, which owns British Airways, Ireland's Aer Lingus and
Spanish carriers Iberia and Vueling, issued a surprise profit
warning on Friday.
"In the run-up to the U.K. referendum during June, IAG
experienced a weaker-than-expected trading environment," the
London-based company said, adding it no longer expected to reach
its full-year target of an operating profit increase on par with
last year's. The operating profit target was around EUR3.2 billion
($3.6 billion).
The U.K. is one of Europe's biggest aviation markets and home to
some of the region's largest airlines, including British Airways
and EasyJet, Europe's No. 2 discount carrier.
Europe's largest airline, Irish discounter Ryanair Holdings PLC,
uses London Stansted airport as one of its main bases.
"We expect airlines serving the U.K. market to face immediate
weaker outbound leisure demand, as the pound weakens and business
travel declines given economic and political uncertainty," HSBC
analyst Andrew Lobbenberg said.
The International Air Transport Association projected the number
of air passengers traveling to and from the U.K. could drop by 3%
to 5% from its previous forecast.
EasyJet Chief Executive Carolyn McCall said the company has
asked the U.K. government and European Commission "to prioritize
the U.K. remaining part of the single EU aviation market, given its
importance to trade and consumers."
Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O'Leary said ahead of the
referendum the airline's growth in the U.K. could be slowed if the
country leaves the EU. Ryanair didn't address the effect of the
vote in its business plans, only saying a seat-sale linked to the
referendum had drawn strong interest.
Peter Simpson, chief executive of bmi regional, a smaller
carrier operating mainly from regional cities, signaled the airline
may reconsider being based in Britain. "Our continued business
domicile as a U.K. entity is less than clear at this point in
time," he said. The carrier had expanded heavily outside the U.K.,
he said, so it is wary of potential barriers to that growth.
The EU's single aviation market, which allows any airline within
the region to fly to any city in the bloc, has spurred air travel
and profits for many of the region's airlines. The agreement also
governs traffic rights with countries overseas, including services
from the U.S. to London, the single-largest destination for
trans-Atlantic flights.
"All of this facilitates greater competition between airlines
and, working effectively, results in lower fares and more choice
for passengers," lawyers at Eversheds said ahead of the
referendum.
British politicians now will have to negotiate new rules for the
skies. Options include becoming an adjunct member to the European
single aviation market, like Norway and a few other non-EU
countries. It could also pursue a bilateral agreement with the EU
similar to that agreed by Switzerland; or a hodgepodge of separate
deals with the EU, the U.S. and other countries, industry experts
said.
Pablo Mendes de Leon, professor of air law at Leiden University,
said adjunct membership in the European aviation market may be
unlikely, because it would subject the U.K. to European regulations
with little say to influence them. A more likely option would be
establishing bilateral agreements with EU member states, he said,
which may vary.
Traffic rights between the U.S. and Britain could revert to an
old and highly restrictive bilateral agreement, called Bermuda 2,
that limited flights and access to London Heathrow, said John
Byerly, the former chief U.S. aviation treaty negotiator. Both
sides would likely move quickly, though, to a more liberal deal, he
said, which would preserve existing services and pacts such as
those between American Airlines Group Inc. and British Airways, and
Delta Air Lines Inc. and Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd.
--Doug Cameron contributed to this article.
Write to Robert Wall at robert.wall@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2016 16:04 ET (20:04 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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