NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) News

Damnit man, we are struggling, but is this a buying opportunity? I am still way up

Lots of red out there. Finding some nice prices for short term poppage

Sub $800 then panic sets in…

Here are Friday’s biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, Netflix, Shopify, Dell, Microsoft, Meta, Coca-Cola, Amazon & more
PUBLISHED FRI, APR 19 20248:38 AM EDTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Michael Bloom
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Some are saying a good entry point is now, and that may be the case. But holding off a bit and seeing where it goes in the next week or more may be a safer strategy.

If geo-political events escalate, this could go lower. Just my opinion. Good luck to you.

Let’s hope GLTA

This will likely go up in May with an expected earnings beat. The Fed will start projecting rate cuts in the summer and implement a cut prior to the election. As such, the markets will pick up right before the election.

Nice article! It's all about fundamentals, and NVDA has them.

IMO Few months will be better Entry Price. Summer slow down coming and Stock market downward pressure. GLTA

Let's see

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NVIDIA (NVDA) a Solid Buy as it Squashes Bubble Fears

April 19, 2024 — 08:19 am EDT

Written by Tirthankar Chakraborty for Zacks ->
After concluding 2023 on a high note, NVIDIA Corporation’s NVDA shares are off to a flying start this year. The pioneer in graphic processing units (GPUs) recorded the largest one-day gain in the history of Wall Street on Feb 22, banking on an artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy.

NVIDIA’s shares have skyrocketed 70.8% this year and have surpassed the Semiconductor – General industry’s gain of 48.5%. So far this year, NVIDIA has outshined other magnificent seven stocks and is now the third-largest company in the United States, lagging only behind Microsoft Corporation MSFT and Apple Inc. AAPL.


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However, NVIDIA’s stellar surge has made skeptics believe that the stock is in a bubble. After all, stretched valuations and any potential decrease in AI-linked demand for NVIDIA’s chips may lead to a significant decline in the stock price. But NVIDIA isn’t in a bubble! The company’s share prices aren’t gathering momentum based on speculation but due to strong fundamental factors.

The unquenchable demand for AI models is here to stay since it is a major driving force behind productivity gains across multiple industries. While Meta Platforms, Inc. META confirmed that the adaptation of AI tools has boosted returns from its ad campaigns, UBS Group AG UBS expects the integration of AI to drive productivity growth over the next three years.

Now, NVIDIA’s chips are required for AI models deployed across several verticals from manufacturing to cloud computing. This explains why NVIDIA’s H100 graphic cards are the most sought-after commodity in the AI chip market. Such massive demand, thus, has justifiably led to an uptick in NVIDIA’s revenues and earnings.

NVIDIA’s revenues for the fiscal fourth quarter came in at $22.1 billion, up a solid 265% from a year ago. For the quarter ending on Jan 28, 2024, the company’s earnings per share came in at $4.93, up a whopping 765% from a year ago. What’s more, the company’s data center business, which is involved in the production of the H100 graphic cards, was able to dismiss the negative impact of government restrictions on exporting AI semiconductors to China.


In reality, NVIDIA is expected to introduce the B200 Blackwell graphics card to the market. NVIDIA, in collaboration with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, will produce the powerful AI graphics card, which incidentally has received funding from the U.S. government. This explains why NVIDIA is cheerful about its forthcoming growth and expects revenues of $24 billion for the ongoing quarter, easily beating estimates.

But it’s just not about NVIDIA, the euphoria behind the broader AI-boom is not hype, unlike the dot-com era. Tech leaders are primarily involved in commercializing generative AI technology and they have more than double the market capitalization that companies had during the tech bubble in the late 1990s. Their profit margins and return on capital are also way more than the companies in the Internet bubble period. Hence, the strength in their underlying business validates the higher stock prices.

On this promising note, NVIDIA remains a market darling and razor-sharp investors should encash on its likely long-term upward movement. NVIDIA’s expected earnings growth rate for the current and next year is 84% and 14.1%, respectively. Its estimated revenue growth rate for the current and next year is 73.8% and 17.9%, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NVIDIA’s current-year earnings has moved up 17.2% over the past 60 days.

To top it, NVIDIA’s net profit margin is an outstanding 48.9%, way more than the 20% threshold, signifying a high margin. This means the company is capable of generating the required profit from sales and has successfully kept operational costs under control. NVIDIA is also a cash-rich company making it immune to market upheavals. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were $25.98 billion as of Jan 28, 2024, up from $18.28 billion on Oct 29, 2023.

NVIDIA, rightfully, has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and a Growth Score of B, a combination that offers the best opportunities in the growth investing space.

Today? Are you on Crack? Stock market is process of Huge downward Correction.

Agreed

Today would be smart

Does anyone know what’s a good price to get in? Some people are saying $500 and others are saying $400? Just wondering what’s the correction price? Thanks

We are struggling a little, but still sitting on a pile of profits today

Thanks for posting informative news from reputable sources like Evercore (EVR). According to my check "Evercore is a premier global independent investment banking firm dedicated to helping clients achieve superior results."

Given the Nvidia share price rapid race to high levels, skeptical minds want to know and learn more. Interesting and informative news.

I agree that the importance of the chip + hardware + software ecosystem creation by Invidia appears one of the reasons why many investors attracted to shares of what looks like an overblown price in the AI market. We shall see how it continues its path in this challenging geopolitical and some domestic uncertainties in the larger stock market.

PS: EVR share price at this time is $185.56 up + 0.06

Is everyone at the movies today? Silence is golden?

I think so as well. Just hoping the geo-political unrest doesn't derail, this and the broader markets.

I try. Summer and fall should be very interesting

You do quite a good job of pointing out the upside of NVDA. They should have you on the payroll, in their PR department!

Nvidia stock could soar 81% if investors recognize its full potential as an AI ecosystem, rather than just a chipmaker, Evercore says
Matthew Fox Apr 17, 2024, 3:02 PM EDT

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Nvidia stock could soar 81% if investors realize that it's more than just a chip company, according to Evercore ISI.
The firm said Nvidia has morphed into an AI ecosystem play that could generate $69 per share in earnings power by 2030.
"We think investors underestimate the importance of the chip+hardware+software ecosystem that Nvidia has created," Evercore said.
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Nvidia stock still has big upside potential even after it's surged more than 200% over the past year, according to a note this week from Evercore ISI.

The firm initiated Nvidia at "Outperform" with a $1,160 price target, representing potential upside of 36% from current levels. And in its bull-case scenario, Evercore said Nvidia stock could surge to $1,540 in the next year, a jump of 81% from current levels.

Driving that lofty price target is the idea that Nvidia is much more than a chip company, but the bulk of investors still only see it as that.

"We think investors underestimate 1) the importance of the chip+hardware+software ecosystem that Nvidia has created, 2) that computing eras last 15-20 years and are typically dominated by a single vertically integrated ecosystem company, whose returns are measured in 100-to-1000 bagger range," Evercore's Mark Lipacis said.

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The key thesis behind Lipacis' bullish call is that Nvidia is an AI ecosystem play, and it's the clear leader in a new computing platform that will drive efficiency gains for years to come.

"That 'Ecosystem Play' typically captures 80% of the value created during its respective computing era, while other[s] compete for the other 20%," Lipacis said.

Lipacis expects Nvidia to capture 80% of the parallel processing market by 2030, which could be worth more than $350 billion. In such a scenario, Nvidia would have an earnings power of $69 per share by the end of the decade, compared to the company generating earnings per share of $11.93 last year.

"We believe that the Tectonic Shift to the current Parallel Processing / IoT Computing Era started 5-to-8 years ago, and that NVDA is the dominant ecosystem play in parallel processing, which is only in the beginning phases of generating outsized returns for its investors," Lipacis said.

I do not think metals have peaked. Your assessment of them is correct. They will continue to climb, drop off with a crash and then spike.

However, the best time to get into them was before they started to climb. But better late than never.

Well for one, after the hostess workers had their pensions erased, I've never depended on my 401k. Only have $5 an hour put in, and take home pay doesn't show a difference between it or not doing it. Not the end of the world if I don't get it, and in fact I'm not depending on it. I have my normal stock account that has done much much better and it's a cash account so I can pull the money whenever I feel. If your in the mind frame that this is as high as metal are going, your correct, Im on the late end. I'm in the thinking that we're just starting to break out. 40 year cup and handle chart has silver at $250 an ounce, there's a reason central bankers and governments are buying gold. Factor in I'm young enough to survive a bear market where all the baby boomers retiring and coming up on retirement can't endure one. All kinds of rabbit holes I've gone down. Metals just starting a move, will retrace when the market dumps then it's off to the races in metal prices. The hiddens secrets of money episode 7 I think, has some good stuff on why we've peaked on labor force with the baby boomers and what's coming in the future as a result.


Here's a little snippet of another program I follow that just goes off of their evidence system for trades, no fomo.


When this chart falls, it means gold is outperforming SPX. It’s a quarterly chart, so it’ll be the end of June before we get confirmation (or not) of a breakdown. I think it’s important to see it fall below the 3-year ma and dotted support lines before getting too confident (the XAU/USD ratio would be around the magic 0.5 by then). A move below the Ichimoku Cloud would be the final nail in the coffin. All of this brings me to my next big point – a stock market ‘plunge’.

I hope you’ve come to realise that neither Pat, nor myself, would use phrases like ‘plunge’ unless there was a solid basis for it. In this case there is solid evidence to suggest a large drop is likely at least.

Nice recitation of the facts! Today you are the bearish bull.

With all that is going out there, Invidia share price today remains above level of $830.22

The $840- 850 level appears shaping up to be so far the new resistance level as of right now.

That is positive given the 2nd Week share price is in downtrend.

Today's volume is on track to be heavier than usual, with 39,799,502 shares having traded so far. The On Balance Volume indicator (OBV) shows that longer term accumulation has given way to near term selling pressure by traders as of 3:08 PM ET Wednesday, 04/17/2024

This guy is a tool. Just let him get his one more post in and then we can be done with him.

Not here to impress you either. But while you are working overtime, I am very comfortably retired, since my 40s and enjoying life.

You speak of rolling your 401k into hard assets. A little late to the dance on that? They are at their peak at the moment. If you were as smart as you think you are, you would have initiated that transfer a while ago, while that class of assets was down.

This stock may go up or down, but I'm so far ahead, it doesnt matter.

In any case, good luck to you. Hopefully, you make some $$ here with your play.

Discuss stock valuation??? What a joke, you mean mongo buys cause he sees on TV it goes up? What about price to earnings, price to book, price to sales? That's doesn't get discussed here lol. Oh , that's right, y'all depend on them professional analyst's for targets that a drunk monkey can do :). Dotcom bubbles gonna look like childs play, and the worse part is, how many peoples retirement funds buy into this, it's a big percentage. I'm going to be doing a 401 rollover to hard assets as every fund I can choose from is big in tech or bonds. Don't you remember, I'm not here to be impressed or impressed by others like ol cadilliacdave, if I was id start up another profile and get more posts. Again, maybe read the great taking. Ps, not impressed by what you make, I get $130 an hour on double time which is weekends and after 12 hours. Typically work 1800-2500 hours a year with 3-5 months off. Come on rocket man, gotta try harder than that. Bubble gonna pop in the not so distant future

I agree with you that a reckoning is coming. But everything is so corrupted, they should be able to hold it together thru the election.

The banks, the Fed and many woke CEOs, all on the same page, to accomplish their goal.

One thing that could contribute to bringing the house of cards down is if the Israeli war escalates. That will be an issue the administration will not be able to get their arms around.

I think this election season wont be able to contain the market Deception too much longer.
Banks are going to get blasted, as they should.
Valuations are obscene, and the constant inflow from 401k, pensions, etc. coupled with printing and fraudulent spending…going to have to reconcile eventually.

Agree. This market downturn is specifically due to Middle East war concerns, and the FED's policies on interest rates. NVDA is simply in step with it. Has ZERO to do with NVDA fundamentals (as you say).

This is down due to market jitters, geo- political tensions, inflation and a lack of rate cuts. It is not down due to fundamentals specific to NVDA.

Just like you are, when this goes up 15-30 points! You disappear completely! But no worries, right? Just like the proverbial bad penny, you turn up when it goes down.

At least the longs here continue to discuss the stock price, company and various other factors that arise - regardless of the direction of the share price.

You might be able to do the same, if not for the post limitation.

Pretty silent today lol

Nvidia’s AI Bot Outperforms Nurses: Here’s What It Means For You
Robert Pearl, M.D.
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Covering the tech, business and culture of U.S. healthcare
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Apr 17, 2024,04:30am EDT
Nvidia Holds Its GTC: Artificial Intelligence Conference
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivers a keynote address [+]
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Soon after Apple released the original iPhone, my father, an unlikely early adopter, purchased one. His plan? “I’ll keep it in the trunk for emergencies,” he told me.

At the time, he couldn’t foresee that this device would eventually replace maps, radar detectors, traffic reports on AM radio, CD players, and even coin-operated parking meters—not to mention the entire taxi industry.

Like most people, my father couldn’t imagine how a phone would completely transform our personal and professional lives. His was a typical response to revolutionary technology. We view innovations through the lens of what already exists, fitting the new into the familiar context of the old.


Generative AI is on a similar trajectory. While industries are investing billions in this technology to streamline processes, enhance operations and expedite R&D, even those well-versed in its capabilities find themselves stunned by AI’s breakneck progress. I count myself among them.

Six months ago, I began writing “ChatGPT, MD,” a book on the promise and perils of generative AI in medicine. Initially, I feared my optimism about the technology was too ambitious.


Based on its exponential growth projections—doubling in power every year—I envisioned it becoming a hub of medical expertise for doctors and patients within the next five years (at which point it will be 32 times more capable).

And yet, by the time my book published last week, I realized my estimated timeline might have been too conservative.

In March, Nvidia stunned the tech and healthcare industries with a flurry of announcements at its 2024 GTC AI conference. The California-based chipmaker, which owns 80% of the world’s semiconductor market, released a string of headline-grabbing products and partnership agreements that may radically change everything from diagnosis and care delivery to drug discovery and healthcare economics.

The most striking announcement came when Nvidia and Hippocratic AI revealed their collaboration on generative AI “agents,” which are said to surpass human nurses in performing a variety of tasks, and all at a markedly reduced cost.

According to company-released data, the AI bots are 16% better than nurses at identifying a medication’s impact on lab values; 24% more accurate detecting toxic dosages of over-the-counter drugs, and 43% better at identifying condition-specific negative interactions from OTC meds. All that at $9 an hour compared to the $39.05 median hourly pay for U.S. nurses. These AI nurse-bots are designed to make new diagnoses, manage chronic disease, and give patients a detailed but clear explanation of clinician’ advice.


These rapid developments suggest we are on the cusp of technology revolution, one that could reach global ubiquity far faster than the iPhone. Here are three major implications for patients and medical practitioners:

1. GenAI In Healthcare Is Coming Faster Than You Can Imagine

The human brain can easily predict the rate of arithmetic growth (whereby numbers increase at a constant rate: 1, 2, 3, 4). And it does reasonably well at comprehending geometric growth (a pattern that increases at a constant ratio: 1, 3, 9, 27), as well.


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But even the most astute minds struggle to grasp the implications of continuous, exponential growth. And that’s what we’re witnessing with generative AI.

Imagine, for example, a pond with just one lily pad. Assuming the number of lilies will double every night, then the entire pond will be covered in just 50 days. Yet, on day 43, you would see only 1% of the pond’s surface covered. It seems hard to believe that just seven days later, the lily pads will completely fill the pond.

Experts project that AI’s computational progress will double roughly every year, if not faster. But even with conservative projections, ChatGPT and similar AI tools are poised to be 32 times more powerful in five years and over 1,000 times more powerful in a decade. That’s equivalent to your bicycle traveling as fast as a car and then, shortly after, a rocket ship.


This rate of advancement proves challenging for both healthcare providers and patients to understand, but it means that now is the time to prepare for what’s coming.

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2. GenAI Will Be Different Than Past AI Models

When assessing the transformative potential of generative AI in healthcare, it’s crucial not to let past failures, such as IBM’s Watson, cloud our expectations. IBM set out ambitious goals for Watson, hoping it would revolutionize healthcare by assisting with diagnoses, treatment planning, and interpreting complex medical data for cancer patients.


I was highly skeptical at the time, not because of the technology itself, but because Watson relied on data from electronic medical records, which lack the accuracy needed to make reliable “narrow AI” diagnoses and recommendations.

In contrast, generative AI leverages a broader and more useful array of information sources. It not only pulls from published, peer-reviewed medical journals and textbooks but also will be able to integrate real-time information from global health databases, ongoing clinical trials, and medical conferences. It will soon incorporate continuous feedback loops from actual patient outcomes and clinician input. This extensive data integration will allow generative AI to continuously stay at the forefront of medical knowledge, making it fundamentally different from its predecessors.

That said, generative AI still requires a couple more generations before it can be widely used without direct clinician oversight. But Nvidia’s bold entry into healthcare signals a long-overdue willingness among tech companies to navigate the legal and regulatory hurdles of healthcare. Once an AI clinician chatbot is available, multiple other companies will quickly follow.

3. GenAI In Healthcare Will Be Ubiquitous (Hospital, Office And Home)

Just as my father never imagined that his iPhone (stored in his trunk) would evolve into an essential tool for navigating life, many Americans struggle to envision the transformative impact generative AI will have on healthcare.


The concept of accessing medical advice and expertise continuously—affordably, reliable, and conveniently around the clock—represents such a departure from current healthcare models that it’s easy for our minds to dismiss it as far-fetched. Yet it’s becoming increasingly clear that these capabilities are not just possible, but likely.

Daily, I receive feedback from both clinicians and patients who have interacted with current generative AI tools. The majority report that the responses, particularly when prompted effectively, align closely with clinician recommendations. This is a testament to the evolving accuracy and reliability of generative AI in healthcare settings, and it promises a revolution in medical care delivery in the near future.


A decade from now, we will look back at today’s skepticism in much the same way I think about my dad’s initial underestimation of his iPhone. We are on the cusp of a major shift, where generative AI will become as integral to healthcare as smartphones have become to daily life.

I appreciate the readings and work that you have shared. Very informative. Thank you

$NVDA Large $15 Million Call Opening order (Vol > OI)
By: Cheddar Flow | April 16, 2024

• $NVDA Large $15M Call

Opening order (Vol > OI)



Read Full Story »»»

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Charts do not "predict" anything. They show what the big traders do. With my experience in charting, I can do "some" predicting but mostly about predicting the probabilities. I have seen enough charts in my life that I can give a decent idea of what is "probably" going to happen. Nonetheless, the market is all about the fundamentals and therefore, if there is a piece of news that comes out that changes the picture, the probabilities changes with it.

I can tell you though (in answering your question), that NVDA first became a buy when it made a new all-time high of May of last year when it broke above the previous monthly closing high at 326.76 and no sell signal was given thereafter. The chart gave another buy signal in January of this year when another new all-time monthly high was made, above 493.55. That 2nd buy signal would have been an opportunity to "add" to the previous purchase. As such, the original purchase price would have been around $327 and you would have added around $494. If the stock closes out this month in the lower half of the month's trading range (so far that has been 830.22 and 922.35), the signs of taking profits will be tangible.

Low volume today, but it still seems to want to push higher.

A nice well thought out explanation. Thank you.

No doubt charting is a useful tool, especially for someone with your credentials and experience. Not sure if you were following NVDA last year, but I was curious if the charting had predicted the consistent rise last year?

I am a chart analyst and as such, I trade stocks mostly off of charts. I have been a chart analyst for 47 years and worked for Merrill Lynch and Pru-Bache in the 80's. Though I do look at the fundamentals of the companies I trade, I believe that the charts "tell the story" of what the big people in the market are doing. Computers and Algorithms are 70% of the trades in the market and they work mostly off of charts. They buy support and sell resistance "automatically".

I do fully understand that AI is the "hot issue" in the market these days and as such, it is difficult to see NVDA going down. Then again, neither you nor I have as much information as the big traders have and none of us can fight what the computers and algorithms do. Having said that, I did not "predict" that NVDA will go down or up. I gave you the chart levels that if broken, will generate automatically sales or purchases by the computers and algorithms.

Having said that, the charts do suggest the overall market has a higher probability of correcting here (than going up). Here is a link to my weekly newsletter that explains that in more detail: http://theoasisclub.net/qapoasnews04142024.html

If the market heads lower, it is going to be difficult for NVDA to go higher. In addition, it has been 7 weeks since the stock made its all time high, after going 8 weeks making a new high each week. This means that selling is being seen and that is always something to watch.

Again, the stock could move either way "but" right now the probabilities (based on the charts) are favoring the bears. Not by a big margin but there

You mention a price target or $1000. I believe that target has been revised higher, by several analysts, into the $1100 -$1200 range.

Did the charts predict the significant and consistent rise last year, as most analysts were also behind the curve with this? A fair question under the circumstances.

The stock will bounce around with the rest of the market volatility, somewhat due to geo-political tensions.

Next month when earnings are reported, and new records are shattered, this should be higher.

In my opinion, this moves higher, later in the year, as we get closer to the election.

NVDA is starting to show signs that a top has been found. First of all, the rating companies that follow NVDA had given the stock a $1000 upside objective. The high for the stock has been $974, so for all intents and purposes, that goal has been accomplished. Second of all and in looking at the daily closing chart, NVDA made an all-time high daily close at 950.02, dropped down to the previously established daily close support at 857.74 (with a drop down to 853.30), which was then followed with a rally up to 906.26 (which by the way, was not a big positive because the previously established support was at 926.69, and the bulls could not even get the stock that high). The all-time daily closing high has now been tested successfully with that 906.26 high daily close and confirmed as well with two red daily closes in a row thereafter. Such a retest is always a requirement when no new negative news has come out.

If the stock closes below 853.30 (presently trading at $873), a sell signal will be given. That would be the first sell signal given since October.

There is an open gap below at 823.00. Open gaps are magnets for closure when any kind of a high has been established (as the stock has done), meaning that if no further positive fundamental news to help the bulls comes in, that gap will beckon the computers and algorithms to short the stock. Given that the stock moved straight up for 11 weeks with no support built along the way, a sell signal would not only cause the gap to be closed but would generate profit taking and new selling to occur, given that the closest "intraweek" support is found at 662.48. That is support but not established support as all the closes have been green. Established support is down at 492.06.

This evaluation is all chart oriented and given than AI is such a "hot" industry right now, it is highly doubtful that a drop down to the $500 level will be seen. Nonetheless, computers and algorithm trading is 70% of the trading in the market and that does suggest that enough selling could be seen, to take the stock down to the $660 level.

Right now, and on a daily closing basis, the two levels to watch are at 901.26 and at 853.20. A break of either will generate further movement in that direction. The probabilities favor the bears to the tune of about 63-35.

NVDA. AMD. Climbing the slick wall today. Maybe Intel too.

mb

Demand for NVIDIA’s Blackwell Platform Expected to Boost TSMC’s CoWoS Total Capacity by Over 150% in 2024, Says TrendForce
16 April 2024 Semiconductors Frank Kung
NVIDIA’s next-gen Blackwell platform, which includes B-series GPUs and integrates NVIDIA’s own Grace Arm CPU in models such as the GB200, represents a significant development. TrendForce points out that the GB200 and its predecessor, the GH200, both feature a combined CPU+GPU solution, primarily equipped with the NVIDIA Grace CPU and H200 GPU. However, the GH200 accounted for only approximately 5% of NVIDIA’s high-end GPU shipments. The supply chain has high expectations for the GB200, with projections suggesting that its shipments could exceed millions of units by 2025, potentially making up nearly 40 to 50% of NVIDIA’s high-end GPU market.

Although NVIDIA plans to launch products such as the GB200 and B100 in the second half of this year, upstream wafer packaging will need to adopt more complex and high-precision CoWoS-L technology, making the validation and testing process time-consuming. Additionally, more time will be required to optimize the B-series for AI server systems in aspects such as network communication and cooling performance. It is anticipated that the GB200 and B100 products will not see significant production volumes until 4Q24 or 1Q25.

The inclusion of the GB200, B100, and B200 in NVIDIA’s B-series will boost demand for CoWoS capacity, leading TSMC to raise its total CoWoS capacity needs for 2024. The estimated monthly capacity by the end of the year is expected to reach nearly 40K—a staggering 150% year-over-year increase. By 2025, the planned total capacity could nearly double, with NVIDIA's demand expected to make up more than half of this capacity. Other suppliers, such as Amkor and Intel, currently focus on CoWoS-S technology and are primarily targeting NVIDIA’s H-series. With technological breakthroughs expected to be challenging in the short term, expansion plans remain conservative unless these suppliers can secure additional orders beyond NVIDIA, such as self-developed ASIC chips by CSPs, which might lead to a more aggressive expansion strategy.

NVIDIA and AMD’s AI development set to propel HBM3e into mainstream market dominance by the second half of the year

TrendForce has identified three major HBM trends for NVIDIA and AMD’s primary GPU products and their planned specifications beyond 2024: Firstly, the transition from HBM3 to HBM3e is anticipated. NVIDIA is expected to start scaling up shipments of the H200 equipped with HBM3e in the second half of 2024, replacing the H100 as the mainstream. Following this, other models such as the GB200 and B100 will also adopt HBM3e. Meanwhile, AMD plans to launch the new MI350 by the end of the year and may introduce interim models like the MI32x in the meantime to compete with the H200, with both utilizing HBM3e.

Secondly, there will be a continued expansion in HBM capacity to boost the overall computational efficiency and system bandwidth of AI servers. The market currently predominantly uses the NVIDIA H100 with 80GB of HBM, which is expected to increase to between 192GB and 288GB by the end of 2024. AMD’s new GPUs, starting from the MI300A’s 128GB, will also see increases, reaching up to 288GB.

Thirdly, the lineup of GPUs equipped with HBM3e will evolve from 8Hi configurations to 12Hi configurations. NVIDIA’s B100 and GB200 currently feature 8Hi HBM3e with a capacity of 192GB, and by 2025, the B200 model is planned to be equipped with 12Hi HBM3e, achieving 288GB. AMD’s upcoming MI350, to be launched by the end of this year, and the MI375 series, expected in 2025, are both anticipated to come with 12Hi HBM3e, also reaching 288GB.

TAIPEI, April 16 (Reuters) - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co , the dominant producer of advanced chips used in artificial intelligence applications, is expected to report a 5% rise in first-quarter profit on Thursday thanks to strong demand.

The world's largest contract chipmaker, whose customers include Apple and Nvidia, has benefited from a surge towards AI that has helped it weather the tapering off of pandemic-led electronics demand and pushed TSMC's stock to a record high.

TSMC is set to report a net profit of T$217.2 billion ($6.71 billion) for the quarter ended March 31, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate drawn from 22 analysts. SmartEstimates give greater weighting to forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate.

That compares to the first-quarter net profit of T$206.9 billion last year.

TSMC last week reported a 16.5% rise in first-quarter revenue, beating market expectations and at the high end of the company's own guidance.

Eric Yao, a vice president at Taiwan's Eastspring Investments, which manages about T$90 billion of client assets in Taiwanese stocks, said the $6.6 billion in U.S. subsidies for TSMC's new Arizona plants augured well for its prospects of maintaining its lead in advanced process technologies.

"TSMC will likely continue to lead in that front, and Intel and Samsung will not have much chance to catch up," he said, referring to two rivals who want to challenge the company's dominance.

Intel this month disclosed deepening operating losses for its foundry business, a blow to the chipmaker as it tries to regain a technology lead it lost in recent years to TSMC, which also announced last week it would build a third fab in Arizona.

Fubon Securities analysts said they expected TSMC to revise up its outlook for AI demand for future years.

"TSMC previously indicated that AI could account for high-teens of its revenue by 2026, but based on our calculation, we think the target could be reached earlier in 2025."

The AI boom has helped drive up the price of shares in Asia's most valuable company, with TSMC's Taipei-listed stock having surged 36% so far this year to a historic high, compared with a 14% gain for the broader market.

TSMC is due to hold an earnings call at 0600 GMT on Thursday. ($1 = 32.3890 Taiwan dollars) (Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Faith Hung; Editing by Jamie Freed)

Volatility

Be like what? Volatility, or a sell off?