By Karen Talley Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Retailers are expected to scare up their best same-store-sales in a year-and-a-half when they report October numbers, and several will likely update their third-quarter expectations. Sales at stores open a year or more are projected to rise 2%, their best showing since April 2008, according to Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Financial. Credit much easier comparisons from a year ago, when sales for most of the group declined, retailers' continued promotional drive and a snap of cold weather early in the month. A number of retailers are also likely to disclose their expectations for the third quarter, since October is the last month in the period for many. In presentations and announcements last month, TJX Cos. (TJX), J. Crew Group Inc. (JCG) and Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) were among retailers that raised their guidance at least in part because of better-than-expected October sales, so updates may be weighted to the upside. A number of retailers said during last month they had seen pick-ups in customer traffic. But retailers are still using discounting heavily, which means less profit per sale and that customers will be coming into the Christmas season still accustomed to big markdowns. Stores did carry less inventory in October, as retailers prepared for a Christmas season where supply will be better balanced against demand than last year and massive post-holiday discounting will not be necessary. While virtually every retail category posted a same-store-sales drop in October 2008, all but one - teen apparel retailers - are expected to show growth for last month. The continued struggles of Abercrombie & Fitch Inc. (ANF) -despite being very promotional last month - are expected to weigh down the teen group. Abercrombie & Fitch is expected to show a 14.7% drop in comparable store sales. Rival Aeropostale Inc. (ARO), however, is projected by Thomson Financial to post the best - and only double-digit percentage - growth, at 13.8%. Discounters and mass merchandisers are expected to do well, with Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) continuing its comeback after being hit by lower gasoline prices this year compared with last and a dollar that was stronger. Also in the discount group, Target Corp. (TGT), is pegged to show a flat comp, its first non-negative same-store sales showing since April. -By Karen Talley, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2196; karen.talley@dowjones.com
