The unraveling of U.S. manufacturing employment in the past year hasn't damped the outlook for welders, whose numbers lag far below the projected work force needed for increased spending on public infrastructure and energy projects.

As many as 200,000 additional welders will be needed by 2014, a 40% increase over the current number of welders in the U.S., according to industry estimates. Trade schools and training programs turn out about 25,000 new welders a year, but twice as many welders leave the trade annually, mostly because of retirement.

Despite the loss of 1.5 million manufacturing jobs in the past year, or about a 12% reduction in the total U.S. manufacturing work force, employers complain that they can't find enough trained welders. The shortage has prompted some equipment manufacturers to design welding gear with less-accomplished welders in mind.

"There's truly a talent mismatch," said Jonas Prising, Americas president for job placement service Manpower Inc. (MAN) "There are lots of people who are unemployed who'd like to apply for these welding jobs, but they don't have the skills."

It is a problem that isn't limited to welding. Openings for machinists and other manual skilled trade workers have been among the hardest jobs to fill in recent years, according to Manpower.

As high school shop classes and other vocational career programs have been pared back in the past 20 years in favor of more college preparatory curriculums and technology-related courses, teen-agers have had less exposure to skilled trades.

Parents, many of whom now work in service-sector jobs themselves, also are reluctant to encourage their children to pursue skilled trades, fearing that such jobs will disappear like millions of other manufacturing jobs draining out of the U.S economy.

Experts say welding, in particular, is often perceived as a dying occupation being replaced by robot welders in factories or outsourced to low-wage workers overseas.

"I'll have parents say that robots are taking the jobs away from welders, but we need welders to run the robots," said David Cotner, welding department head for the Pennsylvania College of Technology in Williamsport. "They're the ones who make sure that the robots are running optimally. It's taken people time to see that welding isn't just dirty, blacksmith-type work."

Observers say enrollment in training programs is up across the country as recently displaced workers look for other careers. Starting pay for newly trained welders is about $36,000 a year and experienced welders can earn double that amount.

Nevertheless, the flow of new workers into the trade isn't expected to match the amount of welding work anticipated in the coming years as bridge structures, transit systems, water plants and other public infrastructure undergo repairs or replacement.

The American Society of Civil Engineers projected earlier this year that $2.2 trillion needs to be spent on the aging infrastructure in the U.S. in the next five years just to keep it in adequate condition. The U.S. economic stimulus legislation included about $100 billion for infrastructure improvements.

Meanwhile, the resurgent nuclear-power industry, the construction of wind-energy turbines and elevated investment in oil and natural gas pipelines are creating more jobs for welders in the energy sector.

"We've got to bring more talent into the business. I don't think there's a single welder coming out of our school who can't get a job," said Carl Peters, director of training for Cleveland-based Lincoln Electric Co. (LECO), which has operated its own welding school since 1917. Lincoln, the world's largest seller of cutting and welding equipment, this autumn started marketing a virtual-reality welding simulator to lower schools' costs for training welders.

The simulator sells for about $46,000, but doesn't consume fluxes or electrodes and requires less instructor supervision than an actual electric-welding machine. The simulator provides computer-generated images to give students experience in applying molten metal to metal joints.

Other equipment manufactures are adjusting their product lines to accommodate the shortage of welders. Miller Electric Manufacturing Co., a unit of industrial conglomerate Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW), has redesigned its welders and simplified the controls for workers with minimal instruction in welding.

"We understand what the customers' pains are," said Mike Weller, North American welding president for Wisconsin-based Miller Electric. "You have a less-trained welder today than ever before."

-By Bob Tita, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-750-4129; robert.tita@dowjones.com
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