WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., and
CHICAGO, Feb. 7, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Agricultural
producer sentiment hit a record high for the second consecutive
month, according to the January Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy
Barometer.
The January reading of 153 marked a substantial increase over
December's record-breaking 132. Not only is 153 the highest reading
in barometer history, but the 21-point jump also represents the
largest month-over-month sentiment change.
January is the third straight month the barometer increased
after sentiment fell to 92 in October
2016. The barometer is based on a monthly survey of 400 U.S.
agricultural producers.
While the Index of Current Conditions contributed to the jump,
climbing from 102 in December to 118 in January, it was the Index
of Future Expectations that had the biggest impact with a 23-point
increase from 146 in December to 169 in January.
"The biggest contributor to the large uptick in optimism since
October has been producers' increasingly favorable expectations
about the future," said James Mintert, the barometer's principal
investigator and director of Purdue's
Center for Commercial Agriculture. "This was again the case in
January, but it's worth noting that producer optimism was also
supported by a perceived improvement in current conditions."
Part of that perception was driven by improvements in prices for
key commodities, including soybeans, cattle and hogs.
Another possible source of producer optimism is the potential
for a new regulatory environment with the new U.S. presidential
administration, said David Widmar, senior research associate and
leader of research activities for the barometer.
Surveyed producers were asked whether they thought regulations
impacting agriculture would be more or less restrictive or about
the same in five years. Forty-one percent said less, while only 29
percent said regulations would be more restrictive.
"Given that regulations affecting agriculture have been
increasing over time, it's noteworthy that 41 percent of the
respondents expect a less restrictive regulatory environment in
five years than they face today," Widmar said.
Quarterly, barometer researchers also survey 100 agricultural
thought leaders—including lenders, retailers, consultants,
academics and agribusiness professionals—about their economic
expectations. Results of this quarter's thought-leader survey were
similar to the results of the producer survey, increasing sharply
since the last thought-leader survey in October.
One difference between producer and thought-leader sentiment was
in expectations for new-crop corn and soybean futures prices,
Widmar said.
"Overall, thought leaders were a bit less optimistic than
producers, as fewer respondents expect new-crop corn futures to
reach new contract highs," he said. "A larger share of thought
leaders than producers expect new futures contract lows to be set
for both corn and soybeans."
Read the full January Ag Economy Barometer report at
http://purdue.edu/agbarometer. The site offers additional
resources, such as past reports, charts and survey methodology, and
a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and quarterly
webinars.
On Thursday, February 9, Mintert,
Widmar and Purdue Professor of Agricultural Economics Michael
Langemeier will present a barometer update webinar at 1:30 p.m. EST/12:30 p.m.
CST. They will discuss current factors impacting the
industry and drivers of agricultural producer sentiment. The
webinar is free. Register here.
The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index
of Future Expectations also are available on the Bloomberg Terminal
under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and
AGECFTEX.
About the Purdue University
Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial
Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development
and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural
Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute
research and educational programs that address the different needs
of managing in today's business environment.
About CME Group
As the world's leading and most
diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) is
where the world comes to manage risk. CME Group exchanges offer the
widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset
classes, including futures and options based on interest rates,
equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural products and
metals. Around the world, CME Group brings buyers and sellers
together through its CME Globex® electronic trading platform and
its exchanges based in Chicago,
New York and London. CME Group also operates one of the
world's leading central counterparty clearing providers through CME
Clearing and CME Clearing Europe, which offer clearing and
settlement services across asset classes for exchange-traded and
over-the-counter derivatives. CME Group's products and services
ensure that businesses around the world can effectively manage risk
and achieve growth.
CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc. The Globe Logo, CME,
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Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and the Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of the
Board of Trade of the City of
Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and
ClearPort are registered trademarks of New York Mercantile
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other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
Further information about CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) and its products
can be found at www.cmegroup.com.
Related website:
Purdue
University Center for Commercial Agriculture:
http://purdue.edu/commercialag
CME Group: http://www.cmegroup.com/
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SOURCE CME Group