Mike Paulenoff – MPTrader
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Mike Paulenoff is a 25-year veteran technical strategist with experience at firms including Smith Barney, Harris Upham, and Drexel, Burnham, Lambert. He has been widely quoted and published in CBSMarketWatch, Barron's and Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, among many publications.
He is currently author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his trades and technical analysis of ETFs that track metals, energy commodities, equity indices, international stocks, and other markets. |
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More Weakness Likely for S&P 500
03/23/2009
The S&P 500 had an interesting week. In the aftermath of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, the SPX climbed to 803.24 to make new recovery highs off of the March low. However, let¹s notice that the high for the week failed to penetrate significant resistance represented by the declining 10-week moving average and the Jan-Mar down trendline, and, in fact, reversed to the downside to close the week at 768.54. The SPX closed about 18 points off of the low and about 35 points off of the high of the week, which suggests strongly that ³distribution² and profit-taking have emerged after the failure to hurdle the above-mentioned key resistance levels. My sense right now is that more weakness is directly ahead that should press the SPX to at least 740-735.
ETF traders may short the SPY via the ProShares Single Leveraged Short S&P (NYSE: SH), as my intermediate-term work is warning me that after a meaningful correction of the March upmove (that started two weeks ago), another upleg in that instrument will emerge.
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