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Mike Paulenoff is a 25-year veteran technical strategist with experience at firms including Smith Barney, Harris Upham, and Drexel, Burnham, Lambert. He has been widely quoted and published in CBSMarketWatch, Barron's and Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, among many publications.
He is currently author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his trades and technical analysis of ETFs that track metals, energy commodities, equity indices, international stocks, and other markets. |
Buyers Will Prevail
01/15/2008
Tuesday morning ahead of the open, Citigroup (C) reports earnings, which needless to say, could be problematic for the company, the financial sector, and for the entire market. On the other hand, based purely on my technical work, C is at or is very near to a major upside pivot reversal from within the 26.00-28.00 price zone. The bank will have to produce disastrous results acutely worse than the write-downs and losses currently built into the price. When I juxtapose the chart of C with the pending news, my conclusion is that a falling price from here will be subject to the "beachball effect," which means that a negative price reaction will not be able to be sustained -- and the buyers will prevail (from 26.00-28.00 area). 
While on the subject of bullish big caps, a look at the Dow Diamonds (AMEX: DIA)/ iShares Russell 2000 ETF (AMEX: IWM) ratio chart shows the outperformance of the big caps at the expense of the small caps using the Dow Diamond ETF, and the Russell 2000 ETF, especially for the past year. In particular, notice the mid-2007 upside breakout at 1.6400, which is nearing its measured upside target of 1.8200. Furthermore, if the chart pattern continues to preserve the symmetry from the left hand side of the chart (the bear phase, when the small caps outperformed during the very bullish years between 2003 and 2006), then the big caps will continue to outperform beyod the 1.8200 ratio (DIA/IWM) towards the 2.10-2.20 target zone, or by another 20% before current "adjustment" runs its course. 
Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis on equity markets, futures, metals, currencies and Treasuries. Sign up for a free 15-day trial to Mike's ETF Trading Diary today.
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