Bulls Still in Control
06/26/2007
If you like volatility, Monday was your kind of day! On the other hand, if you want some sense as to whether the bulls or the bears are in charge, a day like Monday will make you question if either has the upper hand. Admittedly though, the fact that the equity indices gave up their morning upside reversal is disturbing, but not yet to the point of forcing me into neutrality (from my near term bullish posture). Monday's intraday low of 149.02 in the S&P 500 Depository Receipts, or SPDRs (SPY), violated the prior low of 149.06 on June 7, which ordinarily would be bad action if the break triggered downside acceleration. However, as of now the lack of downside follow-through after marginal new lows coupled with a higher daily momentum (RSI) reading on Monday (versus on June 7) suggests that the SPY is ending a correction rather than about to accelerate into a more substantial decline. The BIG picture view of the SPY below is biased to the long side in sympathy with my interpretation of the overall technical picture, but knowing full well that the bulls are running out of time to complete the correction off of the June highs. 
Another way to view the lack of downside acceleration is to examine the chart of the ProShares UltraShort QQQ ETF (QID). Right now that chart still shows a powerful downtrend (uptrend for the longs), dominated by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Until that pattern is violated Ð upon a climb above the prior 'lower high' at 48.51 the bear trend will remain very much intact. The QID's must hurdle a 7-week resistance plateau at 48.60, as well as the prior high at 48.51. Otherwise, even though it may not feel like it at times (like right now), the bears remain in control of the QID's and the bulls in control of the major equity markets. 
Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis on equity markets, futures, metals, currencies and Treasuries. Sign up for a free 15-day trial to Mike's ETF Trading Diary today.
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